Fair, or Foul?

Referees have a damn hard job in football, and the last few weeks, with Mike Dean being "demoted" (how does this even work? how is working in a similar environment, with perhaps more incidents per game in the Championship work? why is this a demotion? The answer, as ever, is money, power and exposure. But I digress) the work referees do and how they perform is increasingly important.

There's a couple of things which have been on my mind lately, and it stemmed from someone in the Analytics community (I spent a bit looking for the actual tweet in question, but couldn't find it...) saying how Ander Herrera is notoriously effective at fouling multiple times without picking up a yellow.

This is interesting to me - in big games, physicality can be a great weapon (of course, and dangerous, anti-football etc etc.) and knock the big players off the stride. Cristiano often talks about having lumps kicked out of him as defenders would either try to get under his skin, or knock him off his game. Indeed, I recall Atleti doing something similar to nullify Messi in a Champions League game (if my memory serves me correctly)

The ability to get away with a foul uncarded, though, depends on the league. Some leagues are more lenient, not wanting to disrupt the game or unnecessarily break the match, and others are a lot more card happy. This is what this post is going to focus upon, and potentially build out and look at individual players in a follow-up post.

Let's talk about leagues.

The way I've gone about this is quite simple - Instead of looking at individual players, and which players seem to have such a skill at a very, very high level, we can start by looking at teams, and therefore, leagues.

The metrics I've used are very basic - I've taken data from this season for 7 leagues; Premier League, Championship, Bundesliga, Eredivisie, Serie A, Ligue 1 and La Liga for this season - and the only fields I've looked at are; 

- Games played

- Cards (Yellow + Red)

- Fouls/Fouled

Within this, I've look at fouls/fouled per game, yellows and reds per game as well as the number of fouls committed for every card received. Let's get stuck in.

I'll post the dashboard here, and if you scroll down, you'll find discussion points from me, with a few screenshots.

The first story point (there are two, one in each tab along the top), focuses on a scatter plot. This contains every team from every league mentioned above for this season (before the round of games for the weekend of 21st Jan 2017)

On one axis is the cards per game, and the other has fouls per game. Tab through and find your own team, and compare it across the leagues.


The second set of charts is the dot-plots, and I've added a median line, with an confidence interval of 95%. These I've gone through in a bit more detail below.

Fouls per Game

The leagues are each sorted by the median of the league metric - so the league with the highest number of fouls per game is the Bundesliga, whilst the Premier League is the one where there are less fouls awarded per game. My favourite team here is Stoke - Who knew that the old school, long ball, physical team would be the cleanest in the league a few years on! PSV, as we'll see throughout, have a knack of not fouling often, whilst Real Madrid, Napoli, Bayern and Derby are the "bigger" teams in the league who come out with the lowest fouls per game in their respective leagues. Game effects? A better team spends less time defending, so wouldn't have to worry about making fouls? This also gives an inkling of the management of the games in each league - which referees play advantages vs. blowing the whistle for any sort of foul play.

Cards per Game

When we look at fouls, we then have to look at how trigger happy referees are when pulling out their cards. La Liga has the highest number of cards awarded across the league, whilst referees in the Eredivisie and Ligue 1 1.5-2 cards per game.

Fouls per Card

This is what I mainly wanted to look at - which teams are to foul more and are awarded cards less? I've done this with only yellows, as red cards are fairly rare (though in the full dashboard, you can have a look at this data also).

The danger here, of course, is inferring that teams which foul and are carded less are lucky, and those who foul less and are carded more and unlucky - what if the latter have some tough tacklers who often make bad challenges? What if the former are pushes in the back, and body checks by various players across the teams. This is where the data should be investigated to explain the phenomenon. Drilling down to player level will support this.

What's the point? Where's the value?
With any sort of data analysis, particularly in sport, there are two key questions. The first is, what's the point in doing it? The second is, if this is useful information, how can we use it to our advantage as a team?

The answer to the first question is simple; there are certain teams across every league with a style of play where tactical fouls are common. Is this because of their aerial style of football? That they play with 2 robust central midfielders or defenders? Or are they simply bullies, who have the ability to shut down flair players through sheer physical player.

This doesn't even start to answer those follow up conversations or questions, but it does do something quite key - it starts those conversations. It gets people thinking from a set of basic metrics which are easy to understand. And this is where true buy in can begin within clubs, and indeed, within fan bases.

As a team, the advantage of this information would be for a pre-match scouting report. How can this help us identify the style of play that the team plays? One step further... Who are the key players who help them play like this? Again, basic analysis breeds the desire for more context to inform better, smarter decisions - and in a shorter space of time. And further? Once you start getting a good idea, a smart analyst would begin to look at manager styles (hat tip to Statsbomb Services who advertise that they do this sort of thing), and then even look at referee styles & data, to see if that can be gamed. Edges and gamification of league rules.. That's the way sports teams get ahead, right?

Have a play with the dashboard above, and do be in touch any thoughts, ideas or feedback.

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Fast start or frustration; England vs. Iceland preview

I maintain this; that this team that Hodgson has been putting out, and the system being deployed is the best I've seen in in my life as an England fan. It's just good to watch - it has balance, players who have a good amount of quantity - Arguably no sexy individuals who you throw on to *be* the game, but I do feel that there are some class players in the setup; Daniel Sturridge, who on form is the best English striker; Eric Dier, a player in which England may have finally found their deep-lying pivot; Danny Rose, a strong left sided defender who may be the answer to finally replace Ashley Cole - And on the right, there's a battle between Nathaniel Clyne and Kyle Walker. Couple that with the different variations possible with players like Lallana, Alli, Henderson, Rooney, Kane, Vardy and Sterling... Good problems.

So tonight England play Iceland - The fairytale team. How many times have you heard about the size of their population, the feel-good nature of their team and who can forget that commentator when they scored in the last minute? As the kids say, "Scenes."

But England are going HATE playing against them.

Deep lying defences

In the group stages, England have been unfortunate to play three teams who were a) happy to not have the ball, and for one reason or another b) happy to sit deep and let England attack them. This is not good news, particularly for a country where fans and media are disgusted by wages, perennially  pessimistic and fans sit in pubs slapping the table yelling "Just do something!", "How hard can it be?!", "My nan coulda scored that!" while shaking their head, moments before someone amongst their group wisely notes "This team is crying for a plan B - where's Andy f*ckin Carroll?!" (I'm looking at you Glenn Hoddle)

The hardest part of this is the penetration - Against Russia, there were 4 defenders PLUS the two sitting midfielders, with the centre-backs barely venturing a few yards away from the 18 yard box they were defending. (Passing networks via @11Tegen11)



Against Wales, the 5-2-2-1/5-3-1-1/3-4-2-1 thing that they play was difficult to break down due to Allen and Ledley dropping to the edge of the 18 yard box to protect Williams, Chester and Davies (the three centrebacks) meaning that the 'good' positions to score (central, around the penalty area) were congested as hell. Moreover, the full-backs were happy to be pinned back to stop the cross - and despite this, England still created some chances, some half chances. Mega deep.



Against Slovakia, England faced a team who didn't really want to play - with a back four who sat deep again, with Slovakia content to play in triangles on both flanks.



In all three of these games, England pressed high, with good ball recoveries in these areas and the players linked up well - But the pass they were looking for in the channels and on the inside space between the 18-yard box/6-yard box was an area which they weren't able to exploit.

And this struggle is why I'm concerned about how England will fare if they don't get a fast start.

Let's take a few things into account;

Iceland haven't exactly been dominant in the games they've played in. They've had under 40% of the touches in the games they've played in - with the highest being 487 touches vs Austria (846) at 36.5% of the touches in the game. Further, they don't exactly shoot much - against Austria they took 11 shots - compare that to 4 against Portugal and 8 against Hungary. Sure, you can argue that they're getting more and more comfortable on the ball, and working it into areas where they can take a shot - But more importantly the trend here is tonight is going to be more of the same in this tournament for England... A well drilled formation who will be hard to break down, and will be happy to not have the ball and break when they can.



Conversion rates is something that England have to be wary of - Having not been able to finish their dinner vs Russia and Slovakia, and using all 5 strikers against Wales, it's not been a shining performances for a team who have often been mentioned with respect to the 'quality' and 'options' they have in this area.

Iceland have been the opposite - a conversion rate of 25% vs Portugal, 12% against Hungary and 18% against Austria - You can infer that when they get their chances, they take them. Cahill, Smalling and Dier will have to be alert - And more so will Joe Hart, who has looked a bit shaky on crosses this season. (I am definitely not a goalkeeping expert, so I'll skim over this part)

Formations

Iceland seem to play a flat 4-4-2, and what's worse, is they play direct football - Truly the Leicester's of this European Championships! Their 'star man' Gylfi Sigurdsson has been occupying a deeper role as a central midfielder, but in reality he has been all action - from the way they seem to play you can see that the 'route one' option is for the goalkeeper to go long and hit their big man - Kolbeinn Sigthorsson, with last minute hero Jon Dadi Bodvarsson the man who's the highest up. The team as a whole seem to enjoy be successful at contesting long balls, with the 2nd highest success rate of aerial duels, second only to (surprisingly?) France.







The right hand side seems to link  up often too, with Gunnarson being the link between the midfield and defense. However, though the right hand channel seems to be favoured against Portugal, it doesn't seem the case in the games against Hungary and Austria. In terms of shooting potential, it seems to be largely Sigurdsson and Bodivarsson taking their shots, and the pass accuracy is a 60.9% - The lowest in the tournament. (average positions below)



Teams, Teams, Teams.

England will be content to have the ball, but I feel that England will need someone like Raheem Sterling and Danny Rose on the left, with the Clyne-Lallana link on the right which looked very good against Slovakia. The question comes to midfield; Rooney will inevitably start (he's been calm, assured & gives a scoring option) (God, I sound like a United fan) (But he's not _completely_ awful, and still has ), but who alongside him? This all depends on who's up front.. If Sturridge continues then Henderson should surely get the nod. Secondly, starting Henderson or even Milner gives a) legs in midfield (to support Dier on the inevitable long ball counter attacks) but also the 'Liverpool' flank on the right. These club relationships will be vital in the coming rounds, I think; and b) that Dele Alli is a great option off the bench - Whilst, lets be honest, bringing on Henderson or Milner is hardly a substitution which strikes fear in the opposition hearts, and will rarely excite any crowd at Anfield, let alone at the Euros.

I envisage Roy's team may bring in one of Milner and Henderson to sit with Rooney and Dier, Sterling will return on the left and Clyne will take Walker's spot. With Lallana and Milner playing, there's (again) potential for England to change formations from 4-1-2-3 to 4-1-2-1-2 or even 4-2-3-1 - However, I given the doubts about Lallana's fitness, I wouldn't be surprised to see a front three of Kane, Sturridge and Sterling - With Sterling offering the option to play as a #10.

And this is what I like about this England team - There's a dynamism that hasn't existed before. And as long as they can get a fast start to get Iceland to come at them, I envisage a good game for England. My only concern remains Hodgson's game and player management - As to who comes on for who and when... Especially if England are being frustrated again up till the 60th minute mark.

Conclusions

On paper, this should be a very routine win - The Icelandic players will be hungry, and excited but will be told to play their disciplined compact game and play to their strengths. Key for England is to be dynamic through the game, change systems and re-capture the fantastic movement we have seen by them in glimpses in this tournament. And for me, getting an early (0-25 minutes) goal is *vital*. It means Iceland have to come out and meet England, England can drop into a passing rhythm - But protecting the lead means discipline, which is where the experience of Cahill and the quality of Dier hopefully will shine through. England should be hungry - They've had two extra days off because they didn't top the group, to rest, prepare, train and develop. As @unfitforpurpose mentioned on Twitter - the bizarre thing is, the players seem calm and aware of their skills, whilst it's the fans and media who are whipping up a frenzy.

As I've bleated on throughout, this could be the tournament where England actually manage the tournament, than trying to  get off to a fast start - the momentum is definitely building.

Now is the time to make it count.

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England vs. Russia | It wasn't that bad..

This is possibly the best England team I've seen.* *I emphasise the word team here. Lots of caveats to this statement such as 'in parts', 'team performance', 'cohesion', 'understanding' etc. It's a sensationalist statement to draw you in. I think. I hope.

The first major England tournament I remember is World Cup 2002. The final was on my birthday, and England were knocked out by Ronaldinho looping it over Seaman. I still don't think he meant it. I've gotten excited by the prospect, but I don't recall seeing England play this well at a finals. Perhaps I appreciate the game more. Perhaps, as one passionate tweeter suggested yesterday, I'm blind. But I actually believe this.

England kicked off their campaign yesterday with what I would call an 'encouraging draw'. Pundits, however, would probably call it 'a draw which feels more like a loss'. In my eyes, England have been slammed in the past for not understanding tournament football - and that's where the small irk about potentially poor game management vs. Russia comes in. However, that said, a slow start is never a bad thing. Tournament football in it's nature is a game-by-game thing. It really depends on how the lessons from Marseille are learned, built upon and improved.

Let's start with something great; I loved this move by England; the movement and fluidity between the players in white is great, and (admittedly helped by poor Russian positioning), the right hand side was very fruitful.

This is so quality from England. Vertical pass to switch to an advanced wide area, then a third-man run combination. pic.twitter.com/qVmrG1uwx5

— István Beregi (@szteveo) June 12, 2016

The full-backs were fantastic

In the first half - England were really, really good. I almost typed sensational, but I was lambasted on Twitter for enjoying England's overall performance last night, so I'll keep the tone lower. The fact was, they pressed well, the full-backs - across the entire game for me - were sensational going forward. In Kyle Walker, we're finally seeing a player with the pace, power and dribbling nous to get ahead on the over- and under-lap to cut back for one of the central players to shoot. The pass to Rooney was one of a few times I can remember a full-back for England getting past his man, and asking questions of the masses of Russians in the middle of the box. And then we have Danny Rose - The drill across the 6-yard box was begging for Kane or Alli to surge past any man who stood in their way to nick something onto it.

Credits for David Sumpter of Soccermatics - Check out his book!

As you can see above in the graphic by David Sumpter, the passing frequency between Rose, Dier and Rooney is immediately striking, as is the average position of Walker - he was such a pivotal outlet on the right hand side.

Can't win games unless you finish your dinner

The Wales game earlier in the day highlighted that the most scrappy goals can be the most important - And for all their dominance and wonderful display, England could not find that level of scrappy-ness in the first half to force the Russians out of their shell. Look at this average position map - Russia effectively had 6 across the back line 3 or 4 times in the first half, with the full backs really pinning the wide men back. My favourite part was the trust Walker and Rose had in Dier, Smalling and Cahill to be alert to any counter attack. The role of Dier, as highlighted below, cannot be forgotten.



I'd let Eric Dier protect me and my family

Admittedly, that's a bit far and quite superlative, but my point is thus. The role that Dier played last night was immense. Apart from the outrageous free-kick he struck with absolute beauty, he had a dominant performance. Playing the role of passing recycler, he finished the game with 81 touches of which were 68 passes and a passing accuracy of 89.7% (61/68 completed)

And hey. While we're on the subject, lets talk about the passing ability of that England line-up. An average passing accuracy of 82.9% - And that's excluding Hart (60.7%). A long way from "conservative" "long ball Woy" I have heard in the past.

Did Rooney tire after 50 or so minutes?

The decision to substitute Rooney was blasted after the result. "Why sub the captain" people cried (of course, these same people wanted Rooney no where near the starting eleven before the game kicked off) "He's been terrific tonight" they cried. But was there something missing from the latter end of his performance? Let's have a look at his touchmaps. I've spit it into 20 minute chunks.



 So perhaps there isn't *really* anything to be said about that apart from the eye test. After having a look at this, I got to thinking. How did the 'touches' that each team took change at each stage? From the narratives, England bossed the first half, had a poor start to the second, a solid middle, and a bad end. Does that story follow?



Yeah - It seems like the goal was coming. Russia took it upon themselves to dominate the game, whilst the in the first half an hour, looked to take the game to Russia. It's just a shame that pure clear cut chances weren't created.

A slice more of context? Why not.



You can actually see the blue dots (Russia) growing more dominant, especially down their right, England's left. Something to be wary of, perhaps. But that first 0-15 minutes. Wow. England actually dominated.

Game management - What to do to 'see it out'?

Much was made of Roy Hodgson's substitutions. Many didn't rate Kane, Raheem or Lallana in the second half (perhaps they have a point, perhaps not) and admittedly, it might have made sense to bring on J*mie V*rdy to run at the centre-backs of Russia. Who, actually, I thought had a very good game. Both of them knew their strengths and weaknesses, and were rarely drawn out of position by the England attack (apart from perhaps *that* Rooney chance which Akinfeev saved magnificently). I felt like they used every single year of their experience to their benefit to keep England out of the 6 yard box. Which worked really well (see Michael Caley's ExG map below; larger dots, clearer cut chances, the rough sum being rough sum of the probability of goals England coulda shoulda woulda scored from the shots they took etc)



Back to substitions, the name James Milner screams calm, effective, conservative play, and perhaps he should have replaced Raheem Sterling earlier - Or even Rooney, if it was inevitable that Rooney was coming off. The fact that Rose likes to marauder forward to great effect means having someone like Milner who runs tirelessly all game can help the foil - But you lose the direct running of Sterling (though, his ability to pass early, or shoot at the right time will be one of the first things that Pep sorts out. I hope!)

Conclusions, and Wales.

The best part for me is that England could have been carried away by one brilliant game had they won comprehensively. This allows the squad to experience and learn from their mistakes. No doubt the backroom team will have each player assess their own performance and I am almost certain that we will see a very different England. Because of poor performance? Because of the frailties we saw?

No. I feel like Roy actually has been smart about this and will change the team and system depending on the opposition he is facing. Analysts must have watched footage and understood how Wales and Slovakia play. The Welsh game is fascinating for two reasons; first, to see how each team reacts; and second, because of the 5-3-1-1/3-4-2-1 formation thing that Coleman has them playing. The flanks and middle will be overloaded, and Wales will also look to sit and hit on the counter. The amount of long balls that Wales hit (84) is the highest of the tournament so far (not including the games today [Sunday 12th])

So, yeah. I felt OK after last night. Nothing from the chances England had screamed WE WOZ ROBBED to me, and I can understand that the goal was unlucky. However, 1 point is better than 0, and I honestly believe that this young squad played some scintillating football last night in periods - Just were lacking that final spark.

My message to the wonderful folk who have got to the bottom of this? Keep your Spurs & Leicester biases at home, take these 23 players at their merit and enjoy the spectacle. There's some great football to be watched if you stop tutting when England fail to cross into the box early. Watch the movement, the direction of play & the cohesion + players understanding each other shone through across the team. Last night was a good start, and there's so much to improve, I feel genuinely excited.

Finally, England actually played well in a game at a tournament - I can't wait to see what's next.

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Different types of Attacking-Midfielders; a thought starter

Disclaimer; this post isn't about Ozil. Much.

Mesut Ozil is killing it this season.

With over 15 assists already, the German international is on course to hit and surpass Thierry Henry's record of 20 assists in a Premier League season (anyone else unsurprised that this is another Arsenal player under Wenger who holds this accolade?) - But what shouldn't be forgotten is the stick that Arsenal's record signing got in the first season and a half he spent in North London. As the narrative goes, Mesut was not a big game player nor was he the type to be prolific in front of goal.


This tweet by Simon Brundish got me thinking; how long should different types of players be given to make an 'impact'?

Let's examine another player alongside Ozil; Alexis Sanchez. Arguably, he also counts as an attacking-midfielder and I'm sure it cannot be argued that his debut Premier League season was better than Ozil's.

Where Ozil played 2150 minutes in the Premier League, scored 5 goals and registered 9 assists (a scoring contribution of 0.586 per 90) in his first season, Sanchez played 2953 minutes, scoring 16 goals and 8 assists (a scoring contribution of 0.732 per 90)

So Alexis had a higher impact; but ultimately, they are two very different attacking midfielders. Where Ozil is a 'creator' and a orchastrator, Alexis is perhaps more direct. Let's see if this hypothesis holds.

Alexis took 3.5 shots per game, made 2.3 key passes and attempted 3.3 dribbles per game. Conversely, Mesut's first season yielded 1.2 shots per game, 2.9 key passes and 1.7 dribbles.

Already we can see Ozil's emphasis on creating chances than attacking a full back, and perhaps this is why he tended to play narrow for Arsenal even when placed on the wing.

But the secondary factor is this; where Alexis' game relies upon getting the ball, attacking individually, receiving and letting shots fly, Ozil needs to have the movement, space and time to pick out the passes he wants to make. And this would require the players around him to also understand his game.

The purpose of this post is Liverpool's #11, Roberto Firmino. As a rule of thumb (which stems from probably a comfort with multiples of 5), pundits refer to a great midfield player as someone who posts 10 goals and 10 assists a season.

In Ozil's three seasons with Real, he averaged about 6 goals and 15 assists per season.

Alexis at Barca in his three La Liga seasons averaged 13 goals and 8 assists per season.

So where does this leave Bobby Firmino? In his last 3 seasons at Hoffenheim, he averaged 9 goals and 8 assists a season - so perhaps a bit more balanced than the examples examined above. Last season, he took 2.9 shots per game, made 2.1 key passes and 4.2 dribbles - which actually points him to be closer to Sanchez than Ozil in this comparison - his scoring contribution was (in 2918 minutes played) 0.524, with 7 goals and 10 assists. These came in 33 starts, and was slightly down from his previous season. Another factor to his slow start at Anfield could be starting every game two seasons back to back, and representing Brazil at the Copa America this summer.But I am no sports scientist and cannot speculate on this in an informed manner.



 Using just one example of comparing Ozil and Alexis (given their 3 season stints in Spain prior to joining Arsenal), this could be a reason why Firmino is taking time to bed into Liverpool.

From my understanding, attacking midfielders can be 'a Sanchez'; a direct runner, who takes a lot of shots, is good with the ball at their feet. Or, they could be more of 'an Ozil'; less shots, more creativity, with an emphasis on assisting than scoring. The latter I feel requires a few things.

• Understanding the role; making sure that the role and all the tasks a player has to complete on the pitch are understood and being met - and that they are comfortable doing so
• Cohesion with teammates; for Ozil, players need to trust that if they make the run, Ozil can find them, and similarly that if they are to utilise his creativity, the man needs space. This positional understanding, trust & chemistry are important to ensure moves look as fluid as they can.
• Acclimatising mentally & physically; this includes on and off the pitch. On the pitch, the pace, space and movement need to be adapted for the environment an attacking midfielder finds themselves, and off the pitch, the club should ensure that the player is in the right state of mind to perform and 'hit the ground running'

In this vein, I feel that though Firmino may not have sparkled, his passing networks and interplay with his team-mates will increase similar to Ozil's has, and he possesses the ability to run at full-backs and contribute in a way that Sanchez can. It'll be interesting to see how Klopp utilises and changes the use of the Brazilian midfielder.

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Analytics Thinkpiece;

I could I thought of a more imaginative title, but sometimes simplicity is key. I think this was a theme reflected recently when I came up with and delivered a 'Sports* Analytics 101 (*mainly football)" presentation to my colleagues at the Information Lab's Data School. I skimmed over some interesting things, and dwelled on some of the more laboured points - But I got some great feedback from my colleagues, and I hope they took on board something they didn't know before.

Similarly, analytics bloggers, writers and those who are just putting content out there get feedback and help understand things that others may not have known before. With the subject growing and key developments being made in the field, I've been wanting to share my thoughts for a few weeks now; namely since the anti-analytics pieces in national press and online as well as Marcotti's appearance on the excellent Analytics FC pod.

I feel inclined to mention Mark Thompson's (@ETNAR_uk) Sensible Stats twitter here - I think this is a great idea, and the crux of my two-part point of this piece. For me, these are fairly salient within the current state of analytics;

First, that the statistics used should be more accessible and easily understandable - explaining jargon, applying use cases for metrics and ideas and simply lowering the barriers to entry would perhaps make wider football fans more engaging towards such developments in this area. I feel that North Americans are more welcoming of such an approach (this is relatively speculative) but this is given the prevalence of statistics within sports such as baseball, NFL and NBA. This is a point which has been discussed before, and there are some amongst the content producers who are doing their best to make sure this is happening.

Second, is that as many people as possible should look to simply get data, use the data and just play with it.



I echo the tweets above; the best place to start is (for me anyway) where I started one July in 2013 - On Statsbomb. I feel like I was one of the first to follow the work that Colin, Ben & Ted were doing and it was simply excellent to watch it roll, and roll and roll into the hub it has become now. Even with TK at FCM/Brentford, James Yorke has done an excellent job in recruiting good talent who contribute regularly and with very good quality stuff - And it's still accessible & well explained.

Tom Worville has set up Fanalytics Blogs which auto-tweets selected blogs by people, which gives you the most up to date blogs out there, which is a great resource to keep up to date with readings and such.

But what if you want to get involved?



Ben Torvaney has written this post (which features my colleague Chris Love's work on BBC Text Commentary web scraping) on where to get data from when you don't have the opportunity or cash for Opta data here

The too-long didn't-read of it is, start with a simple copy and paste, clean it up a little and start playing. My personal holy grail, and a post I still refer people back to even today? Neil Charles' blog on doing football analysis in Tableau here - When this came out in February, it was the first time I downloaded and used Tableau. Today, 7 months later, it is the bread and butter of my job and I use it almost every day.



But if that ain't enough, and you just want a dataset to go and play with? Have a proper look at Ben's blog again - there are some really good links there and also (as the tweet above states) Paul Riley has a public expected goals Tableau dashboard and the data freely available to use, and Footy in the Clouds and Objective Footy and ChelseaStats are folks who have their data available to play with on their website.

In my eyes, there are those people who are doing the pioneering work within the space, the people who follow, read, critique and do their best to get involved and those who follow out of interest. For me, there's a real danger of those who are doing the cutting edge public stuff to run off into the distance while the rest of us are trying to gauge the ELOs from our ExpG's. Which brings me back, again to the crux of this article - that analytics should be made more accessible and bloggers should do their best to have some level of accessibility (though it's super hard not to immerse yourself in jargon sometimes) and that aspiring people who see what the key members are doing and like it? They should get involved.

Take your favourite team, ask a question and see if the data confirms it - then write about it. Then publish it. Even tag a few people in who you want to read it, and get the exposure you need. The rest will follow, and if you enjoy it, you'll inevitably want to get better and do more stuff.

With today's announcement about Analytics FC developments & the growing interest in the field, there's not been a better time to set up your Blogger or Wordpress account and get writing!

NB; there are some amazing people to follow on Twitter, and rather than listing them all and giving them the acknowledgement they deserve, I'm simply going to plug my Twitter list (I also recommend using Tweetdeck - so good)

https://twitter.com/Scribblr_42/lists/football-data-tweets

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3 months; Is there much going wrong at Ipswich Town?

This post has nothing to do with Bastian Schweinsteiger nor the Carling Cup game against Man Utd. Sorry.

It's not been the best of starts for Ipswich Town, as they look to improve on or replicate last season's play off achievement. However, after a sea of optimism in the summer, things aren't looking as optimistic as this summer felt for many of the Blue Army.

The Tractor Boys started the season by letting a 2 goal lead slip to Brentford in the last 10 minutes of the game, and not being able to close the game out has been the Achilles heel of many of the Ipswich games this season. Though Ipswich are sitting in the top 10 of the table, many will feel that the team could and should be doing better, with the performances not really giving reason for optimism.

I'll be doing a separate post on the striker problem for Ipswich, but firstly I'd like to talk about the midfield. The summer saw the departure of the likes of Ambrose, Anderson et al who had bolstered the squad, and the introduction of the exciting young talents of Ainsley Maitland-Niles and the electric Ryan Fraser. Whilst both have truly excited the Ipswich fans, it has been Fraser who has shone in the first few weeks of the season, whilst the youth and raw talent of Maitland-Niles has been shown (though, it can be argued that the relationship with Chambers and on occasion, Josh Emmanuel hasn't quite clicked yet)

A point I made last night was the relationships between the wide(r) midfielders and the full-backs. Last year, the left hand side was a nailed down Mings/Tabb relationship - which worked perfectly as it combined Mings' tenacity and guile getting forward with Tabb's work-rate and simple play.

For much of last year, Ipswich operated a flat 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3 - The license for Mings to roam forward and join the attack meant that Tabb, often deployed on the left of the midfield (which I didn't mind *because* of TM's attacking talent and marauding runs), was able to tuck in and support the midfield two in a 4-4-2.  This meant that Chambers, who isn't as adept going forward as Mings or even Jonny Parr, was reserved but also had the insurance that either his right-midfielder (often Anderson, or during the later stages of the year, Luke Varney) would cover him or have the energy and nous to track back. The style of play Parr, Anderson and Varney brought down that right was similar to the left - working hard up and down the pitch, covering Chambers when he got forward. This worked so well last year, but Mick seemed to wanted his proper wingers.

Now he has Fraser and Niles, I feel the relationships haven't quite clicked yet; for me, particularly down the right hand-side. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this is something that Ainsley Maitland-Niles does, which often leaves him exposed and allows teams to break down the left. Knudsen has fitted in well (ish) and is still getting up to speed positionally and physically, and has generally allowed Fraser in front of him to wreck a little havoc. On the right, I feel Niles drifts in often, exposing Chambers and occasionally leaving the skipper with the uncertainty whether he has the license to drive forward - Against Huddersfield, knowing Sears' runs and the way he plays allowed Chambers to get up and down (he also gained the coverage of both Douglas and Skuse when needed)



A random piece of blogging/visualisation I did over the summer saw that left-backs, in particular those who were left footed left-backs were more likely to overlap and cross the ball over. This could be due to a number of reasons, one of which being the new 'trend' to have inverted wingers (see, Ryan Fraser), or having a right footed left midfielder with a penchant of cutting in. This allows, I guess, more talented attacking midfielders to have a spot in a team - What isn't helped, however, is when a right-midfielder isn't able to effectively track his man when this situation arises. And I'm still not sold on the effectiveness of Larsen Toure, however much of a cult hero he is for throwing his shirt into the crowd and then asking for it back.

Secondly, central midfield. I love Cole Skuse - I really do, and last season was a joy for me personally as so many Ipswich fans became sold into understanding how pivotal the role he plays is. Protecting the back four, being a king of intercepting the ball, slotting in positionally when others were out of shape and generally playing the most obvious passes. This season? Not so much.

Is it the dynamic which has changed? Are the men in Blue being asked to play a different way, or are they not sure what the dynamic is with the four fantastic strikers and the two exciting wingers? Or is it simply a case of allowing time, and ensuring that a relationship comes into play between any two of Skuse, Douglas, Coke, Bishop, Bru and eventually Hyam? Time will tell, but for me there is something off - And I'm definitely disappointed with the impact that Jonathan Douglas has had. For various reasons, I've only been able to go to one game at Portman Road this year, and where Pitman, Fraser and McGoldrick impressed (as did young Yorwerth), Douglas left me wanting a little. Where was the leadership? The drive? Far too often was he spotted standing and pointing, rather than looking for positions and nurturing the midfield.

Last season's success was built around a spine, the foundations from which the house which McCarthy's men built last year's delightful run on was based on Berra, Skuse and Murphy. With all three struggling to find form, Ipswich's job of winning games has become that much harder.

I think a lot of last year's success was based around the right players who

• a) knew each other and each other's game and
• b) many slice of luck and hard work and
• c) a striker who had a remarkable (yet unsustainable) peak (which I still find bizarre was kept on for sentiment's sake when realistically, for a business decision and to take the club forward, cashing in was the best option).

The method to which Ipswich shoot, their passing and build up play has definitely changed since last season's overachievement and subsequent loss to (truth be told a better Norwich side).

So what needs to change? In an ideal world, Ipswich would have a full supplement of squad players, a tactical set up which makes use of each player's skill and a bench which allows versatility of formation, and injects energy and a fresh perspective. The reality is functional football which is rarely attractive, and arguably since January definitely hasn't been functional.

I believe that Mick is looking to develop a starting back five and instill the foundations which sent Ipswich on *that* remarkable run at the end of 2013. The likes of Bru and Bishop are missing, granted, but I feel that there are other avenues to explore - I'd like to see Niles as a part of a midfield three alongside Douglas and Skuse. Skuse found a good balance between running with the ball and laying off to a teammate, whilst Douglas settle into the game and the rhythm around the 55-60 minute mark (when a creative outlet in McGoldrick was on the pitch).

I think there is no need to panic yet - There are many games to go, and though Hull will be a tough fixture given their Premier League quality, I feel that 4 out of 6 points in the next week will be good - In my eyes.

This, by @GoalImpact (and awesome account and website) shows how open the Championship really is.



I've not posted much given that I've started a new day job, but I'm planning on publishing at least one blog a month - Someone hold me to this! The next blog or two I will post will probably contain more Tableau stats.

As ever, you can find me on Twitter - @Scribblr_42

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Squad Development, Signings & a new Season

NB: My glossary of terms can be found here. At the turn of the year, the Tractor Boys were in a field of glory, after a run of 11 games unbeaten meant they entered the new year in second place, with huge optimism flowing out of Suffolk. Daryl Murphy was in a rich vein of form, scoring left, right and centre, finishing with an impressive 0.71 Scoring Contribution (NPG+A) per 90 (0.577 NPG p90)  - The position of the team was a surprise for all, including many fans who were pleasantly surprised by the teams affluence, and a 32 year old Irishman in the form of his life.

Last season wasn't to be though, as the depth of the squad showed and financially better off teams such as Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich showed that quality does often shine through and Ipswich fell foul to a regression to the mean. However, this has not dampened any of the hopes of the Blues following who are certain that Mick McCarthy's men can be surprise promotion challengers once more.

"A play-off squad with an automatic promotion manager"

When Mick McCarthy took over from Paul Jewell, Ipswich were dangerously close to finally slipping into the third tier of English football - And the team just haven't looked back since. McCarthy's distinct, defence first functional style of play is sneered at by many, but McCarthy and his trusted assistant Terry Connor are seasoned professionals in navigating the often underestimated waters of the Championship - A league which Ipswich are entering a record 14th straight season in.

What does this season hold for Ipswich?



Transfer Business

Many of the fringe players and free agents signed by McCarthy were released at the start of the window, and perhaps most lamented by many fans was the release of Paul Anderson. I liked Anderson, his creative outputs were good, at 2.34 per 90 and 0.33 Assists per 90. This was linked to the amount of goals Ipswich scored from set-pieces (12 from corners, 7 from crossed free-kicks - The most indirect set-piece goals in the league last year).

The most notable departure was Tyrone Mings, departing for newly promoted Bournemouth for a sizeable £8m, with Ryan Fraser joining the East Anglian side on loan as well as Brett Pitman joining for 'no fee'. This was an incredible piece of business for all involved; Fraser will be able to kick on from his impressive 2.58 Key Pass + Assists per 90 whilst Brett Pitman featured as a potential  ready-made replacement were Dary l Murphy to leave. (My earlier post regarding this can be found here). Murphy signing a new deal was more of a talismanic move - The Irishman had his best season since scoring 10 goals and registering 11 assists for Sunderland in 2006-07. His form and aerial ability had the likes of Middlesbrough, Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff reportedly sniffing around - And Ipswich must have been tempted to cash in on an ageing striker. His role this season will be to continue his rich vein of life as a central striker, and develop the game of others around him - as he did with Sears for the latter stages of last season.

Not a lot is known about Jonas Knudsen, signed from Danish outfit Esbjerg but following a pre-season friendly where he made a second half debut against FC Utrecht, he has already endeared himself to fans as a cult hero, as he reportedly has a cannon as a left-boot to match his rocket of a long-throw. Given Ipswich's aerial ability - 48% of all aerials won, second in the league for total aerials contested (2383) - This addition will only add to the hustle Town's players will cause in the opposition area.

Add the loan addition of Ainsley Maitland-Niles from Arsenal, a promising young winger who has appeared on the bench last season for the Gunners as well as squad bolstering Giles Coke and Larsen Touré, with the potential for Jonathan Douglas signing later this week and Ipswich's squad looks to be built upon a solid base, allowing the attacking quartet of Murphy, McGoldrick, Sears and Pitman to feed off the direct style of play McCarthy has brought to Town.

Key Players

The spine of Berra, Skuse, McGoldrick and Murphy is seen as pivotal to build a team around. Berra is suspended for the start of the season, but being dominant in the air (4.49 Aerials Won per 90) and ranking second in possession turnovers (Unsuccessful Touches + Dispossessed per 90) - Berra plus one other of Smith or Chambers is widely seen as the central defensive pairing of choice.



Murphy's aerial dominance is huge with a win (42% success) off a huge 457 contested aerials; only Rudy Gestede (now of Aston Villa), Igor Vetekele & Atdhe Nuhiu contesting more aerials. David McGoldrick took had a shots per 90 of 3.96 and a conversion rate of 2.1% from within the penalty area - The lowest among strikers who played >1500 minutes. Given the amount of shots he took 96, a surprising 56 came from outside the box - the second highest amongst strikers in the League with only Ross McCormack shooting more frequently from long-range.

An interesting trend I saw within the Ipswich team last season was the obvious difference between shot takes and chance creators (Key Pass + Assists per 90) is very much defined by position. For other teams, this split isn't as distinct with a few midfielders in the spectrum of creating & shooting - Perhaps an area which the squad needs to strengthen to mount a true promotion challenge - The blank space in between the shooters and creators, the upper right quadrant is where Ipswich can/should look to push on. It's where I think the signing of Jonathan Douglas will help develop this further, as well as bringing much needed nous and experience to the midfield.



I was interested in this, so I've included a the full map with all teams (filtered for players with >500 mins played) just to see trends. I've posted the full picture below, but I'll add a link to the Tableau Public dashboard later.



For notable other Ipswich players, Teddy Bishop is a player who a lot is being made of. When introduced in during October, he was much needed as a player who would fearlessly pick the ball up and look forward. Much of the fanbase enjoyed this, as the common (mis)conception of Skuse passing sideways and backward were continually being bandied about. Of course, as the season progressed the value that Skuse brought as a calm presence recycling and reusing the ball was essential to the run that Ipswich embarked on in the winter of 2014.

My lukewarm tips are Bishop and Pitman to really impress. I can see Pitman displacing Murphy around the middle of the year, and along with the other two strikers, the competition for starting XI spots will be more fiercely contested than ever. Bishop will have a year of experience in this league under his belt, and may be trusted to complete some full 90s this year (according to TransferMarkt, Bishop did not finish a game - Started 23 and was subbed in all of the appearances). Pitman is one player who I saw was a good  looking player, but never thought he would be available for transfer. As a player, I'd position him in the space between Murphy and McGoldrick, which is an awesome idea.

Aspirations

The notion amongst fans is that par for the season will be play-offs. With a bit of squad cohesion and development, there is an agreement that automatic promotion is possible, but the financial muscle and strength in squad depth of other teams might weigh against Ipswich. The Championship as a league which is full of talented players. I won't attempt to predict McCarthy's 'preferred eleven' as I feel as though each team will be set up differently, for a draw away and a more pragmatic attacking feel to their home performances.

Expect Ipswich to continue their unflattering style of functional football, littered with set-piece profligacy and direct channels of play. The energy and dynamism across all the positions will highlight the hardworking ethos which has been drilled into a team who plays under Mick McCarthy.

UPDATE: Check out the published workbook.

 

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