Transfer Windows have lost their shine

Another season over; the Champions League final signaled the 'official' end to another football season, and I already hate the transfer window - and Sky Sports' relentless coverage. This morning was a prime example - I had SSNHQ on as Bilic to WHU was confirmed.. Literally about 5 minutes before they had spent a good 5 minutes telling viewers about him, and as it was announced the exact same profile was regurgitated by the female co-'anchor'. Like, I'm not expecting MNF levels of interest, but they love to make everything into a massive deal, don't they?

Anyway, you can keep your Jim White, your bets on who will go where - for me, I want to see a team get their business done early, keep an eye on players who might become available and focus on building teams who work together and promote a squad feeling. Which brings me nicely to Ipswich.

Transfer window or not, rumours of Ipswich signing people have been flying - from Darren Pratley, to Ben Pringle right the way round to James McClean. I couldn't care less until the club announces. I do, however, like playing with data.

Tableau's been an arse to me when I've tried to embed, so here's a screenshot with annotations - the y-axis shows the Key Pass + Assists per 90 mins played; so the chances created & converted. Along the bottom is Goal Contribution - so this is Non-penalty Goals + Assists per 90 mins played.

As you can see, the Anderson/Tabb axis of earlier on this season actually created quite a few chances - But more importantly, the position of Ben Pringle. Perhaps a reason that the backroom staff at ITFC like him. He's a talent for sure, with a dominant left foot (90% of shots with it). He also like to cross the ball, so that could be a contributing factor.

Darren Pratley seems a weird one in my opinion; he's a bit average in terms of goals production, and isn't really that overwhelming in terms of chances created. A good squad player, especially give Ipswich's current squad size (further trimmed after the summer cull)

I'm sketchy on James McClean - He can hold onto the ball but this next graph is what worries me.

Turnovers per 90 are being dispossessed or unsuccessful touches - Tackles+Interceptions are basically recoveries - so losing the ball, and recovering it. Pratley seems to do both, Pringle is below the grafters Anderson/Tabb (who are remarkably similar - perhaps further highlighting why MM/TC persisted with those two on the wings)

Another interesting point (apart from King Cole up in the top left) is the strikers vs centre-backs (Chambers is one, and plays like one - Mings is over above Anderson and Tabb, but below Bru). This could be the way the team set up (please take into account that Wigan/Rotherham were both struggling teams too, I just don't really know how I'd quantify that)

And finally, those absurd Daryl Murphy to Cardiff rumours.

If Vincent Tan honestly wants to look at the top scorers list of the Championship and buy the fella at the top, be my guest. For a 32 year old striker £4m would turn my head and then some. Ipswich cannot say no to that level of money. Of course, you have to take into account the fact he has a family who are settled, that he's enjoying his football and the fans adore him - it wouldn't make sense for him at this stage in his life; but money (and agents) talk.

I proposed on Twitter earlier this evening, that James Vaughan is the perfect replacement. Let me show you why.

That cluster is players like Murphy. I've assumed that Murphy's key characteristic is winning the ball in the air, but I've also included ball recovery, as that's a very MM thing (I think, anyway). Bubble size, as the image says, is goal contribution. I've ignored the likes of Ishmael Miller and Steven Davies who are above 30 now, as is Glenn Murray - Pardew's man monster.

Jordan Bowery is one I didn't expect - The one time Aston Villa striker is young, and has a similar number of aerial duels won as Murphy. James Vaughan is one that Ipswich fans may wince at, given his Norwich link (though he only made 5 appearances...), but the kid definitely has talent, and in my eyes could be one to be as good as if not better than Murphy in our current system.

As ever, get involved and give me any feedback, questions/comments on Twitter @Scribblr_42.

I'm hoping to post fairly regularly, before I start my new job in a few weeks!

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The Return of 'Fortress Portman Road' & a reason why Ipswich lose out on young loanees

Another season of football at Portman Road passes.

Ipswich have had an excellent record at home, and as of Monday 27th of April, have the best Home record in the division, as shown below.



This graph (via here) shows that average away form has lead to the slip away from automatic promotion places, but losing just three times at home is a very impressive achievement by Mick McCarthy's men. This has no doubt been down to the 18 goals conceded at home (only the compact Middlesbrough can boast less), a style which has been promoted by McCarthy's often unfashionable 4-4-2 approach, which has championed a hardworking press - styles the likes of Jay Tabb and Cole Skuse have flourished under - and lest we forget, arguably one of the best centre-backs in the division, Christoph Berra being a stalwart, especially in recent weeks against the likes of Wolves and Bournemouth. So there is plenty to be proud of in East Anglia, with perhaps one more home fixture to come!



The above dashboard (I'm skeptical that the embed will work, so please follow through to this link to access it) highlights two things I'd like to discuss. The first being the geographical location of Portman Road, compared to the rest of the UK and secondly the increasing attendances at Portman Road - with added results and match categories for discussion.

So - Let's talk about geography.

Ipswich are roughly one or two hours from London, where there are a cluster of clubs in commutable distance - During the transfer windows, there is often much discussion by (as I often refer to them as) the Football Manager Generation (Don't get me wrong, I have lost many weeks to the popular football simulation - it's a great game.) to speculate 'buying' certain players who are available. The rumour mill likely to go into megadrive this summer, the onus will be on the club to continue to be shrewd and calculated in it's recruitments - but the map goes to show that the larger clubs (ones who have young talent to loan) are clustered in certain areas. And this gives other, northern clubs an advantage in loaning or buying the rights to out-of-favour/young players or free agents. This is a shame, but unless the location of Ipswich suddenly moves due to tectonic shifts, it's unlikely to change. The onus is on the management to promote the club in a way which is attractive to the human sides of the footballers.

Second point - Attendances;

Season	League	Highest Home Attendance	Highest Home Attendance Opposition	Lowest Home Attendance	Lowest Home Attendance Opposition
2014-15	Football League Championship	27923	Southampton	15726	Brighton & Hove Albion
2013-14	Football League Championship	20862	Sheffield Wednesday	14953	Blackburn Rovers
2012-13	Football League Championship	21988	Hull City	15417	Derby County
2011-12	Football League Championship	24763	Crystal Palace	15650	Coventry City
2010-11	Football League Championship	29258	Norwich City	11363	West Bromwich Albion

These are the highest and lowest home attendances at Portman Road since 2010. As expected, if the team is winning and performing well in the league, the fans will come. And they will also come to reasonably priced televised cup replays against Premier League opposition.

What's a bit odd to me is the sporadic nature of attendances this season - of course, the regulars have no returned as of yet, but the so-called 'Soccer Saturday' crowd may be slowly being drawn back to the joys, sorrows and excitement of live football. For the final match against Nottingham Forest, a hat-tip must go toward the #ITFC twitter community and Jonathan Ogle for marshalling the fans to do their best to get Portman Road rocking. The tribute to Chris Reynolds which immediately was followed by a goal was excellent, and a fitting tribute to the Ipswich Town family.

I'm hoping for a Mick McCarthy away point on Saturday, and expect the home leg of the play-off semi-final to be as well attended as the Charlton and Nottingham Forest afternoons were.

The dashboard is fully interactive, and any feedback, comments and discussions are more than welcome!

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The Football League Awards - The Case for Daryl Murphy, Ipswich Town FC

The transformation and renaissance of Daryl Murphy has been incredible this season.

Aged 32 years old, the Irishman joined Ipswich Town permanently following three separate loan spells with the Blues, and since being moved to a more central position, has flourished. The 6 ft 3 striker is the current top scorer in the Championship this season, and has lit up Portman Road this season with some wonderful performances. Under Mick McCarthy and Terry Connor, Murphy's finishing has improved and his work-rate is as faultless as it has been in the previous three spells.



Much of Murphy's career was spent on the left hand side due to his reliance on his left foot (14/24 of his goals have been with his left - 7 headers and 3 with his right foot) and his weaker foot was highlighted when he missed a glaring opportunity to put Ipswich 2-1 up against Brentford last month straight after half-time.



The above graphic from Squawka shows the placement of Murphy's goal placement - These are more varied than the other two contenders, Bamford and Deeney, and similarly a majority of his goals are taken from within the 18 yard area - with two long shots taken as well (vs. Cardiff and Brighton - I believe?)

Shots however, are where I feel Murphy (and to an extent his injured partner in crime David McGoldrick) fall down - The two have taken he most shots in the league, which could attribute to Murphy's profilic goalscoring (though some have been goals of real quality)



This moved Murphy's conversion rate (goals per shot taken) to 15.8% - lower than that of Bamford (16.8%) and Deeney (17.3%) - He is also the main contributor to Ipswich's goals with 35% of the goals scored in the Championship this season scored by the number 9. This said, his goalscoring has dropped off in 2015 along with Ipswich's form and the emergence of new signing Freddie Sears. However, this has allowed Murphy to display his other attributes - his aerial prowess through flick ons and wins, as well as his tireless running along the opposition back four. Holding up the ball has meant that he has been able to bring other players into the game as Ipswich move forward.

The style that Ipswich have played this season of long forward passes and organised pressing/hard work has suited the attributes of Murphy's game and this has been evidenced in his excellent season. The ITFC Player of the Year is a a front-running contender in the race for Championship Player of the Season, but Troy Deeney is arguably more deserving due to his prolific nature for the past three seasons. This said, without Murphy's impact and influence, it could be argued that Ipswich - on their shoestring budget - would not be contending at the level they have found themselves this season, surrounded by teams with far better squads and finances.

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The Football League Awards - The Case for Patrick Bamford, Middlesbrough FC

Patrick Bamford. Where to start with this guy.

Chelsea spent £1.5m on the then 18 year old after just 12 minutes of first-team football for Nottingham Forest, following scintillating displays in the FA Youth Cup - scoring 9 goals over two rounds (four goals in a 5-1 win at Southampton and five in the previous round - a 9-1 hammering of Wigan) meant the London club spent big on a prospective attacking midfielder or striker - a 'centre forward'. Since moving to Chelsea, the youngster has been on loan at MK Dons, Derby and finally a season long loan at Middlesbrough which has lead to his nomination for both Young Player of the Year as well as Championship Player of the Year.



Slightly different for Bamford, given he's been farmed out on loan by the youngster-averse Chelsea FC - But he has excelled in the league, wherever he has been. Bamford is a player who thrives in the box - His pace, good feet and excellent finishing makes him a formidable asset to have. Boro have utilised him often behind a striker, and Bamford often overlaps to chase onto a flick on. Karanka's system of patient, calm football means opponents are worn down before Bamford pulls his pacy party trick out of the bag - He twice made Tommy Smith of Ipswich look a fool as he cleverly outpaced the New Zealander to slot home two very good goals.



Like Deeney, Bamford does a lot of his work within the 18-yard box. He loves to finish into the bottom right hand corner, as his two goals against Ipswich showed. Leadbitter, Reach and Lee Tomlin have all assisted 3 Bamford goals each, whilst Bamford himself has contributed to 5 goals in addition to his 17 (unsure why Squawka are only showing 16 in 36.. Dubious goals?)



Bamford's contribution of 17 goals is 27% of the total of 64 goals scored by Boro this term, and the Chelsea loanee has contributed 25 key passes, and taken 93 shots.

So, Patrick Bamford has played the least amount of minutes than the other two nominated for Player of the Season. Bamford has no doubt shown glimpses of real talent, and for me should be given a run in the Chelsea side (He probably won't) but his inconsistent use as well as wider contribution to the team has been arguably less so than other players within the Championship. Many fans and players may feel slightly hard done by the inclusion of Bamford in a top 3 for the second tier of English football - but none will doubt the talent the youngster has.

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The Football League Awards - The Case for Troy Deeney, Watford FC

It's that (um, let's say interesting) time of year again where managers choose their players of the season for the Sky Bet Football League Awards *fanfare*. These are always interesting as there are so many people who are put out and/or disapprove of the choices. This year has been no different (but I'll delve into that in a later post)

First, let's look at Watford's Tory Deeney (arguably the favourite to win the award) For the past three seasons, Deeney has been Mr. Watford - Now the captain, he has had another excellent season for the Hornets.

Deeney signed in 2010, and this has been his goalscoring output since;



(Source: TransferMarkt)

The striker has scored around 20 goals a year for the past three seasons, and aged just 26 years old, it could be argued he is at the peak of his powers. A strong striker who looks to bring others into play, Deeney has positioned himself at the top of the Championship and contributes heavily to the wider team.



The above shot positioning, taken from Squawka, highlights his finishing prowess from 'good' areas within the box. The fact that Deeney finds himself in so many good positions is a tribute to his attacking movement and ability to harrass defenders. Watford's number 9 likes to take long shots, 33/110 being from outside the box, but he is yet to score from this range. The striker is also fairly creative, and has contributed 8 assists as well as 58 'key passes'.

Above are the goal appearances from Troy Deeney, again from Squawka, and 13 of his goals have come from his right foot, scoring just 3 headers. 44% of Deeney's shot have been on target, and he has missed one penalty.

With the likes of Ighalo and Vydra often around him, the Watford attack has often terrorised defences - especially after the turn of the year. His combination play with both Anya and Guédioura has lead to six of his goals (3 assists each for Anya & Guédioura), and Watford have scored 87 goals this season - just 2 less than top scorers Bournemouth with three games to go.

His contribution to the team is the same as his strike partner Ighalo - Both scoring 20 goals amounting to 23% of Watford's goals this season - Deeney, however, has had a hand in 28, whilst Ighalo has only registered 2 assists to add to his 20 scored.

This could be a big step for Troy Deeney, as he is being touted by many as one who would want to ply his trade in the Premier League to see if he can perform at the highest level - As Charlie Austin has, as previous winner Danny Ings has shown. So, should Watford miss out on promotion again, it will be interesting to see which managers and clubs take a risk in the prolific striker. But this season, Deeney can be proud of his performance as he has had an excellent season overall.

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Goals + Assists - Offensive Impact of English Football League (EPL - L2) Players (Thu 9th Apr edition)

So, yesterday I messed around on Tableau with data from last season's League 1 players; And today, I used transfermarkt as a resource to get plain and simple goals, penalty goals and assist data for the four leagues in English football - I think this is a good way to show the benefits of data visualisation, and particularly in terms of player assessment.

The output of offensive players is much easier to see than defensive - They're assessed on their goals, their goal ratio, their impact on goals for the team etc etc. And I think this dashboard helps give some sort of insight.

I'm not sure how useful the trend-line is, and whether it is worthwhile leaving it in there for the future - But for this one I have made it a bit more interactive - Find the player you like, split by position (as defined by TransferMarkt) and use the sliders to change the minutes.

Any feedback/comments more than welcome, feel free to also tweet and follow! @Scribblr_42

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Tableau Practice v1.1 - Sky Bet League 1 Scoring (13-14 season)

https://public.tableau.com/profile/scribblr.42#!/vizhome/Messingaround/Dashboard1

So I had a mess around with Tableau, both yesterday and today - My first go was after Neil Charles put up his excellent "How to.." guide a month or so ago, but I didn't have any real data.

And then it struck me, that I had a horde of Sky Bet League 1 and (more extensive, however sketchy) Championship data to mess around with. So I did - And I've ended up with the above very simple dashboard. (Let me know if it works..!)

So what I've got is non-penalty goals per 90 on the y-axis and assists per 90 on the x-axis. The size of the bubble indicates the amount of minutes played (Started at a minimum of 700, as to not get any wildcard players with stupid number involved) and the green-white-red gradient indicates age - Which I thought would be quite interesting - Note Lisbie and Akinfenwa.

I've also added in a trend-line, with the statistical description from Tableau included as an image on the right, as well as a key. I think there's actually quite a lot you can do with this, so it'll be cool to do a full season breakdown analysis once may comes around - Hopefully with data for each Championship team. But yes, this is a first play around and any feedback, pointers etc. are more than welcome!

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Unexpected Lethargy; Huddersfield vs Ipswich review

It wasn't a good day at the office, let's be honest.

An extra days rest, a slightly rotated side and a buoyant mood following a draw against hotly tipped Bournemouth meant Ipswich were favourites to win the Huddersfield game, particularly from the viewpoint of the Blue Army following.

A la Watford, a rotated Ipswich side had fans on Twitter wondering why Bishop and Sears had dropped to the bench, and where David McGoldrick was as he was replaced by Stephen Hunt on the Ipswich bench. Zeki Fryers continued at left-back, with Chris Wood and Richard Chaplow coming into the side. The reported formation was 4-4-2, which would have seen Varney play down the right and Tabb on the left. My understanding of this was that it as a 4-4-2 off the ball moving to a more narrow 4-3-3 when in possession, with Varney and Murphy either side of Wood, spearheading the attack. Tabb and Chaplow would be either side of Skuse, who would do his usual job mopping up in front of the back four.

But it didn't really pan out that way. An early chance for Jay Tabb was blocked away and a early shot from Nakhi Wells was blocked by Tommy Smith of Ipswich; and just as Ipswich were beginning to get their way back into the game (following a minor scare for Cole Skuse), a wayward pass from Fryers toward Berra was underweighted, allowing Wells to show his talent to nip in and finish past Bialkowski. A balanced opening ten minutes was suddenly followed by a half dominated by the home side. Huddersfield by and large have nothing to play for, but seemed to utilise the absence of width in the Ipswich side and the lack of confidence being displayed when the Tractor Boys had the ball to wreck havoc down both flanks.


The heatmap above, from WhoScored shows a few key things. The middle of the park for both teams, particularly Huddersfield, was bypassed and emphasis was put on the flanks. Given the joy that was being found on Ipswich's left, the young left back Zeki Fryers was targeted by Sean Scannell - Time and time again, the full-back seemed pegged back; in total, Fryers lost possession 3 times, more than any of his back 4 counterparts. The formation seemed to trouble Ipswich, as the 5-3-2 with both James and Scannell bombing forward especially with Conor Coady doubling up alongside Scannell when he could. The organisation and energy of the Terriers seemed to be greater, which is odd because that trait is normally associated with the energetic, hardworking Ipswich. After predicting a 2-0, 3-0 even 4-0 win before the game, fans were quick to scapegoat Chris Wood, Zeki Fryers and (of course) Tommy Smith for the woes that Ipswich faced being 2-0 at half time. As @Chompx3 on Twitter mentioned, W 13% D 27% L 60% is the record that Mick McCarthy's Ipswich have in the league when going down by a goal.





Chris Wood and Richard Chaplow were replaced at the break by Freddie Sears and Teddy Bishop but it was Jay Tabb who produced the cross for the energetic Luke Varney to nod home (becoming [via @Chompx3 again] Town's 19th different scorer this season) - The introduction of Jonny Williams no doubt will have excited fans, but the energy and drive to carry the ball forward was too late and Ipswich dropped the 3 points.

The possession was just not there for Ipswich. Far too many wayward passes and the second half was when the team begun to get a foothold in the match. However, after spending much of the first half ball-watching and sweeping up the occasional Ipswich attack, the Huddersfield back three kept calm and were assured when releasing the ball. As the full-time heatmap shows, there was a definite move along the left hand side (Tabb, Williams) but not enough within the final third, whereas Huddersfield enjoyed dominance down the flanks.

With regards to Chris Wood, I'm on the New Zealander's side. He's not played much all season, but it just hasn't clicked yet for the striker. Of the mid-season signings of Sears, Wood, Chaplow, Varney, Fryers and Williams, it was Wood who the Ipswich fans were crying for (ignoring the fondly named 'Joniesta') and it has been Sears, Varney and Chaplow who have made the impact (the 'underwhelming signings') So what's gone wrong? This could be linked to the fact that Wood is not a striker of the same mould as Murphy and Varney, in that his aerial prowess isn't there when it comes to the flick ons and knock downs that the former two have become known for. Nor has he been on the ball enough to show a talent to create (of his 11 passes, 9 were forward but he lost possession 6 times in one half).

Zeki Fryers got some un-needed stick. Drafted in as a two-game replacement for Tyrone Mings, the Crystal Palace youngster stood up strong under a baptism of fire when Ipswich were incredibly lucky to gain a point at Portman Road. Against Hudderfield, he was targeted by Scannell whilst also being hassled by the likes of Coady, Wells and even Vaughan.

For this particular game, I would have rested Sears and Bishop yes, but instead of Wood, I'd rather have seen Paul Anderson on the right hand side, with Varney and Murphy up front feeding off each other. Both are strong in the air, and the crossing ability of Anderson coupled with his energy driving up and down the right hand channel would have been invaluable in defence and attack. I do not miss David McGoldrick, and the addition of Jonny Williams will be crucial off the bench, but the Tabb/Skuse axis with one of Bru/Bishop/Chaplow is one I think that works. The third striker is where I think the game was lost today - Varney works incredibly hard down the right, but if Sears was to be rested (ran his little socks off on Friday) then Anderson would have been the man to replace him in my opinion - if only for his dead ball delivery!

The next game, like this one, should not be underestimated. I feel Mick will show his stubbornness once more, but restore Mings at left-back, but continue with the front 5 - I'd imagine Sears will replace Wood. For a mass change, I'd haul off Murphy, who has not shown his late-2014 form of late (I'd wager that Murphy would have shot hard, early and true with his right after rounding the keeper - I've not seen the chance, but) (Perhaps the Brentford miss and Leeds penalty is still playing on his mind?) Though his running and aerial prowess is still there, would a front two of Varney and Sears not be worth trying? Or playing a **modern** narrow diamond of Williams, Tabb, Skuse and Bishop?

Blackpool, though relegated, have a team made up of players on one year deals. Virtually none will want to stay, I'd imagine, and they will be playing for a contract next season at a similar sized club - the rest of the season are job interviews for them. So the team should not be underestimated, and Ipswich need to return to the organised unit that press hard and play for each other - the ones which gained plaudits on Friday evening, and who worked hard to steal a win at Watford.

If Ipswich do not make the play-offs, which I believe we can but would not be disappointed if we did not, it will not be a huge issue. The team will have yet another summer to gel, develop the side and recruit within our means once more.

Any comments, debate or questions welcome to me on Twitter once more @Scribblr_42

Screenshots taken from WhoScored.com

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Simplicity, buoyancy and 'bouncebackability'

It's been a strange year so far.

2015 started with Ipswich 2nd in the league; spirits were high, there was a belief that this could be our year barring any mass injury or slip up. My enthusiasm was curbed, looking at the teams around us and with us in this league. It's still plain for all to see - The Tractor Boys have no right flying so high (Arguably, nor do Bournemouth, Brentford et al. given the fact that former Premier League sides Wigan & Fulham are in the SBC - That said, it's a stupidly tough league to maneuver around as the Blues have found.)

But a stupendous, strong end to 2014 was matched with a jittery start, and a lull through February - Ultimately, leading to a loss against local rivals Norwich; arguably deservedly so. The performance was professional, organised and far more efficient than Ipswich's - More shots, does not equal more goals.

A loss to Leeds, a draw against Brentford where Town should have won, followed by a humbling 4-1 defeat to Middlesbrough (45 mins of Bamford) cast massive doubts amongst many fans. There were factions saying Mick's brand of football was archaic, that Tabb/Smith/Mings did not deserve their place in the team, that Luke Chambers was misued at right-back, that not the players or coaching staff but the Owner was to blame (this was a very small portion of the fans). And the signings of Luke Varney and Richard Chaplow were seen as underwhelming when better geographically/financially placed teams attracted a bigger name.

Bolton saw a hard fought win, where Ipswich could have done more but the win was confirmed and some optimism returned, where Kevin Bru and Luke Varney worked very hard coming on as substitutes, and Chaplow adding another dimension.

And then Watford.

The game itself was hard fought; it was like watching the Ipswich of late 2014, working hard as a unit and having a few solid rubs of the green - 2 clear cut chances were spurned as Watford failed to register a single shot on target. The introduction of Freddie Sears injected some urgency after a big half from Luke Varney, and it was Sears who's hard work and quick feet which broke through the Hornet's defence for Chaplow to slide past the ever erratic Heurelho Gomes, seemingly with ease but a top finish which took what felt like an age to hit the back of the net. - And thus, Watford were robbed.

The international break has allowed many of the squad to take a break, and to reflect on two hard fought, grafted wins. The way that Ipswich have played throughout some of the best patches of the season; winning attacking aerial duels, working hard down the left and having players who cover every blade of grass, running their socks off for the cause. There is a sense of buoyancy which has returned amongst the support, and the nature of the league means that anything can happen in the next six weeks - especially given the amount of goals (historically) scored in May (check out @stats_snakeoil's timeline on Twitter)

The Good Friday fixture; Bournemouth are one of the most entertaining sides to watch; yes, they've been guilty of playing foul and gaining unfortunate decisions in their favour - but the top level view is that they play a very quick, exciting brand of football whilst Ipswich maintain their hard-working, team ethic where each player has their own role to perform. It will prove to be a difficult test, and the additions of Jonny Williams and Zeki Fryers add some much needed strength in depth but the boys in Blue must also be wary of Kenwyne Jones as he is more than likely to replace the fleet-footed Callum Wilson - The game against Boro highlighted the difficulty that Ipswich have found at set-pieces, and it will prove a test if AFCB choose to amend their game plan accordingly.

The team which Mick chooses to put out is based on training, performance, the team spirit and his own tactical nous. The Irishman is an excellent motivator, and is a steady hand in navigating the Blues out of this league. I envisage a 1-1 draw, or a 2-1 defeat tomorrow evening in front of the Sky cameras - I can see Ipswich conceding (and scoring!) from a set-piece.

Image: EADT.co.uk

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Confidence crisis or minor blip?

This season, for Ipswich, has been one of over-achievement; entering 2015 in an automatic promotion place, with many fans truly believing that this was the year where the longest-serving Championship side would finally not only gain promotion, but even challenge for the title.

Good spirits over Christmas saw the Blues embark on a terrific run of games, with a unbeaten record stretching back three months - the Boxing Day performance against Brentford and the following victory against Charlton exhibited a side which were well drilled, organised, hardworking and most importantly, gelling excellently as a unit. For me, this was a luxury - Ipswich have, and had, no right to be challenging the likes of Bournemouth, Middlesborough, Derby for the automatic berths. Yet with solid defensive displays and tireless work from the midfield and attack, there they were.

Yet, on the horizon was a hiccup - A loss against Derby, followed by a replay against Premier League Southampton proved a stumbling block and Ipswich now find themselves with just 1 win in the last 5. So what's gone wrong? In this post, I'm going to compare the shots taken by Ipswich in *that* run in December vs the last 5 games.

Shot dominance is a good indicator of profligacy, as the more shots that a team takes shows the amount of 'chances' created. I've also looked at the locations of the shots, but not included screencaps. It's worth looking at the dashboards on WhoScored by clicking the scoreline or match report for more detail of each fixture.

Delightful December

December was a key run of games for Ipswich, with the British festive period busy given the packed schedule; against Leeds, Bolton, Middlesbrough, Brentford and Charlton. The Tractor Boys ended December with 13 points from a possible 15.



Despite going down to an early goal, Ipswich picked up their game and began to dominate after pulling a goal ahead.



Ipswich really should have won this game, but from memory, Andy Lonergan had an incredible game in goal from Bolton. Quite notable is the fast starts after half-time but also after kick-off.



The game against Middlesbrough was one of the most assured and organised games I'd seen Ipswich play. From the off they quelled the Boro attack, and only from corners did the Northerners look dangerous.



This was a massive advert for Championship football. Two teams flying high, and Ipswich were 3-0 within half an hour, with Murphy scoring a fantastically fast goal. Slight stagnation after the third goal in terms of  shots taken, which Brentford capitalised on but a great win with the best scoreline in football.



This game saw a huge attendance turn out under the lights at Portman Road, as many of the returning faithful saw Charlton stifled, again through organisation, assured football and good finishing. Another game with almost 20 shots taken, but in this game, efficiency of chances taken was key.

Faltering February

I'm not quite sure what the issue has become - is it confidence? Are key players struggling with the mentality and exhaustion of the excitement and buzz of the new year? 2015 has not started well at all for Ipswich, and in a key run of games, the Tractor Boys have found themselves missing that final slice of talent, luck whatever you want to call it in the home straight.



This game, for me, was ridiculous. Reading scored fairly early on, and Ipswich seemed to respond well. However, there were far too many pot shots from range, and the calmness and patience that we had seen (for instance vs Charlton) somehow disappeared. Deserved more, but quality was not on show.



I questioned the Ipswich run of form before the Birmingham game, and though that pre-Norwich, this was a good omen. Another very fast Town start, assured dominance, scored again, then again, then again but Birmingham still responded (which would not have helped the Blues' goal difference) Unfortunately, this seems to be a 'port in the storm' - Ipswich took more than 20 shots again.



I was in Munich for this game, and didn't catch much, just the final 10 minutes - Which was enough. Norwich had already decided they'd had enough, and were keeping the ball as the Town midfield chased shadows. I compared this to the Norwich home game earlier in the season. The games were remarkably similar, in terms of the Canaries' dominance as well as the shots from range from Ipswich.



This was a strange game. Ipswich took a long time to get going, and the game turned into a flurry of goals after the 65-70th minute. A missed penalty from Murphy cost ITFC a point.



And finally, Brentford. A much more even game than some let on; Brentford had quite a few breakaways in the second half, and deserved the goal in the first half an hour. Ipswich could have tucked the three points away through Murphy, but the Irishman will pick himself up.

Shot locations + Dominance

For me, I think that the locations of the shots that are taken is an issue; build-up play is often rushed, and the team is trying to score in different ways than the way Ipswich set up in the first half of the season. There is definite talent in the team and it'll find it's way to the fore.

Next steps

There are a lot of fans who have blamed Tommy Smith, Jay Tabb et al for the woes of Ipswich, bemoaning the lack of Paul Anderson, Teddy Bishop. But Tyrone Mings has dropped off in my eyes, as has Berra. I think that the workmanlike abilities of Tabb are missed when he's not in the team, than when he's in. David McGoldrick's injury (which might come out the wrong way) came at a good time for him. He'd dropped off in terms of goalscoring, and looked devoid of confidence. I understand his role as foil for Murphy, but the acquisition of Sears, N. Hunt etc in my eyes pushed McG down the pecking order. The challenge is to pick himself up and make himself indispensible to the team - as the much maligned Cole Skuse has done.

The run in for Ipswich is amongst the hardest, and the team will need to rally together and embody the graft, hardwork and cohesive organisation which has shone throughout this campaign, and I think there is a huge opportunity which remains to gain promotion this season.

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