An Ode to Brett Pitman*

(* and also Freddie Sears)

This post is an ode to Brett Pitman, a player who I have been a huge fan of and felt that he was *the* coup of the summer transfer window - My post on replacing Daryl Murphy highlighted the fact that Pitman actually was a great jack-of-all-trades as he had the ability to finish, score, win aerials and shoot often - Which based on the numbers I had on the scatterplot, placed him nicely between McGoldrick and Murphy. Not bad. Check out his radar below;

Compare that to Murphy in the same season, and you can see the number of goals scored is similar (albeit with less minutes), Pitman is better at holding onto the ball, and is more creative than Murphy (more key passes per 90)

This season, he hasn't scored at the same rate, but still has a similar conversion rate and a better shooting percentage (an Ipswich effect?) and still is a creative force - and has even bagged a couple of assists.

The thing I love about watching Pitman is his work rate, an indicative quality of many Ipswich players (Murphy, Tabb, Sears come to mind - and Anderson last year) and this work rate allows him to be a nuisance - and in the game against Rotherham, his diverse skill set allowed him to be the 'official' focal point of the system, though the strikers all ended up playing fairly narrow;

This nicely brings us to Freddie Sears - Sears is (according to #ITFC twitter, which is maybe one step up from TWTD in that there's still mad overreaction, but I feel I can get some level of level headed opinions from some) the best player Ipswich have, a quick guy with a neat finish who can hold onto the ball. So he's wasted on the wing. His radars last year and this aren't too shabby at all;

I actually disagree. Sears playing wide might mean that he has less opportunity to move inside, but it I feel his quality shines through, such that he'll engineer himself some shooting opportunities. But his discipline, ability to stick on the ball and relationship with Chambers seems to be better than Niles. The right-midfielder conundrum is a weird one for me; I have a feeling that a left sided bias for teams attacking in the Championship is a common theme - But I've not attempted to back it up with data. Tommy Oar isn't up to speed allegedly, Toure for me is no more than a squad player and in AMN & Bru are central players who can play wide (in a narrow fashion) 

Other notable comments;

As in some games around this time last year, Mick has shifted from 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3 (4-5-1 without the ball) - Of course, this is way forward, why didn't he play this before etc etc. I'm a bit meh about it all. I maintain two things; one, that Mick McCarthy & Terry Connor are fully in control and understand the dynamics & structure of the team better than many of us - and I think the summer signings are slowly bedding in, understanding their roles, responsibilities as well as that of their teammates around them. This , coupled with a couple of 'easier' games against Huddersfield, Bolton and Rotherham - who were blown away following a change of shape.

I was watching highlights of (almost) every Ipswich game back, and I noticed that a common theme in the patch around that Reading game was a) poor positioning and b) Skuse either having to drop back to save the full-backs or Smith/Berra having to cover, which meant an intelligent striker can simply nip in and score.

I still think scoring 5 was lucky and a part of the craziness of the Championship, than Ipswich being good. That said, Ipswich have gained some level of defensive stability in recent weeks - which for me stems from two things; first, the understanding between the midfielders and the defence, and second the movement of Ainsley Maitland Niles to the middle of the park. I mentioned in a previous post that given he drifts inside naturally, and seems to prefer to be central to the goal than playing wide. In addition, given his relatively high number of turnovers (though he also has a high number of regains) sometimes leaves Luke Chambers (who enjoys bombing forward) with a lot of ground to make up.

November ends with two games; Wolves tomorrow at home and Charlton away next week. I think this should be 4 points minimum; as I tweeted this morning, Ipswich have the highest percentage of shots taken against us in the 6 yard box, whereas Wolves have conceded the least - with almost 61% coming from outside the box. I feel Jackett's got his team organised well but they're lacking bite recently. I'll go for a sneaky Ipswich win or a draw - a clean sheet will be nice as always.

So, to Brett Pitman and Freddie Sears - You are the light which shines bright in a gloomy October.

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Informative shapes, dynamic annotations & the beauty of wow

I've started my first placement after finishing at the Data School, and there are two key things I've experienced so far; firstly, I am so not used to being referred to as the 'Tableau Expert' - I still feel like there's way too much for me to learn, practice and get better at to even understand how it feels to be an 'expert' - in any field! Plus, from what I've gathered from what I've learnt and the amazing people in the community have shared; you never stop learning. Ever! And I think this is one of the best things in life in general.

But this leads me nicely into my second key thing (and not too soon, it was about to get real deep up here) which is the wow factor - Being on site and sitting near the rest of the team I've joined means they can throw questions at me as and when they need some support. And this is where I get to have some fun.

So one such query was regarding 'how do I best show...', and being able to cycle through some ideas, show some funky tricks and drawing out the 'wow!' was super rewarding. For instance, being able to use a shape in a dashboard to convey some information, or using an annotation instead of a label, or what highlight actions are. But that might be for a separate post - Actions can be a three step process.

The main one I wanted to talk about is more 'this is cool, Tableau is so smart' - And I referred to it as a 'dynamic annotation'

Why?

As you can see above; it's an annotation on the sum of sales, which is .. er.. dynamic. I didn't actually know that Tableau did this, but it was one of those 'of course that works' moments.

If you can't see from the .gif, what I've done is added a point annotation to my bar chart, and then the 'cool' part of this was that when you move the arrow around, the label (as it's a <Sum (Sales)> greyed out measure) actually changes depending on where the arrow was pointing.

So, it turns out that there are three different types of annotation;

• A mark annotation; which fixes itself to a mark on the view (which is greyed out in some cases, such as a line chart). This annotates the individual mark and only the text box itself is what is moveable (see below)

Note the 'yellow' indicates that this point is only moveable along it's own arrow, and the green means the highlighted red box is moveable. 

• A point annotation; where both the box and the point are moveable, but the beauty (as you can perhaps just about see above) is that due to the <SUM(Sales)> part, it's able to recalculate itself depending on where on the measure axis it is - imagine an invisible point at the end of each arrowhead. (see below)

Note; all green, all moveable; but also note the lack of dimensions within the annotation itself; as I said, where a mark annotated a specific point, a point indicates an area which is calculated via the measures. In this case, the two measure green pilled scatter plot has two measures.

• An area annotation; this is basically where you can visually draw the user to highlight an area on the chart - which also can act as a really nice caption. I tend to add a transparent colour here; and Tableau is so smart, it even only offers the lighter pastel colour palette. (see below)

Note; this is pretty straightforward, the yellow parts are moveable but fixed to an area and the green points are fully moveable and customisable.

The only time I've really used annotations is on my football blog where I used it to, well right click and annotate - I never really moved the arrow from the mark, as I was using a scatter plot. But I thought this point effect was very cool, and as I began to write this post, I found myself questioning why - which is when I noticed the coloured toggle shapes and the nature of the annotations.

I can't wait to discover more little nuances which I didn't know before in the coming months!

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Reviewing that Zlatan viz

Zlatan Ibrahimovic was always described as an 'enigma' - People weren't sure how good he really was, he scored often but never really exploded, yet still commanded huge transfer fees - But I think since he moved to Paris St-Germain, he's really come into his own - A fact which was highlighted when he became the club's all-time highest goalscorer with 110 goals on the 4th of October 2015.

I made a visualisation to celebrate, using TransferMarkt.com as my data source, scraping the data using Import.io and then adding multiple sheets in Excel. Check out the viz below.

When I created it, I was quite excitable - it was current, I'd worked hard to get a lot of information on there, and I felt it had a infographic meets visualisation feel to it. Looking at it now, for the purposes of this blog, I think that there's scope for a makeover.

Let's talk through it a bit.
I kept a black background in order to utilise the gold text, which enabled me to have a 'champion' theme, and I added the image which the PSG Twitter account posted when Zlatan broke the record. Then I added a cumulative goals scored chart, coloured by season with a second overall running total sitting behind - I think this was a mistake, looking back. A simple running total would probably suffice, but I'm still a fan of the information that the tooltips provide.

The comparison to Pauleta was supposed to be a bit of context, but I think it's a bit distracting, and takes away from the achievement - Particularly as the website I used to get the data doesn't have the same granularity so therefore doesn't have the same effect.

Then the 'radio' chart. I'm super uncertain about this - I wanted to show the games in which Zlatan has scored or assisted a goal, to show his attacking influence and to show games where he had contributed to at least 3 goals. This needs to change. I think it's very hard to read, and there definitely is a better way to visualize this particular datapoint.

This was also the first time I had created a scrollable dashboard - one which allows the user to read left to right and scroll to see more - I liked this, but it definitely had it's issues when actually putting the dashboard together in Tableau.

All in all, on reflection, I think the aethetics, theme and layout of this visualisation was good - I just think that I need to spent a little bit more time thinking through whether something adds value, the underlying narrative of my story & essentially, what the most important points of the visualisation are.

I'll be doing a makeover of this over the coming weeks I think!

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Let's go!

I've been meaning to create this blog for a while.

Since joining the Information Lab, three or four months after discovering Tableau, the world of Cairo, Tufte and Few, everything seems to have accelerated and I'm seeing, understanding and developing more and more new things every single day.

So the purpose of this blog is to attempt to post my thoughts on visualisations, books I've read, new and noteworthy articles, as well as the journey in creating some of the data hobbyism projects I undertake.

Currently, I have a bunch of blogs posted on the Data School website, one (so far!) on the Information Lab site & a completely separate football (kind of) meets data blog with a focus on the team I've grown up supporting, Ipswich Town.

I'm hoping that this blog serves as almost a data playground for me, allowing me to have a voice & mark my journey as I am exposed to and learn more about data! Plus, it allows me to use Blogger, as I think I can actually embed dashboards on here.

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Analytics Thinkpiece;

I could I thought of a more imaginative title, but sometimes simplicity is key. I think this was a theme reflected recently when I came up with and delivered a 'Sports* Analytics 101 (*mainly football)" presentation to my colleagues at the Information Lab's Data School. I skimmed over some interesting things, and dwelled on some of the more laboured points - But I got some great feedback from my colleagues, and I hope they took on board something they didn't know before.

Similarly, analytics bloggers, writers and those who are just putting content out there get feedback and help understand things that others may not have known before. With the subject growing and key developments being made in the field, I've been wanting to share my thoughts for a few weeks now; namely since the anti-analytics pieces in national press and online as well as Marcotti's appearance on the excellent Analytics FC pod.

I feel inclined to mention Mark Thompson's (@ETNAR_uk) Sensible Stats twitter here - I think this is a great idea, and the crux of my two-part point of this piece. For me, these are fairly salient within the current state of analytics;

First, that the statistics used should be more accessible and easily understandable - explaining jargon, applying use cases for metrics and ideas and simply lowering the barriers to entry would perhaps make wider football fans more engaging towards such developments in this area. I feel that North Americans are more welcoming of such an approach (this is relatively speculative) but this is given the prevalence of statistics within sports such as baseball, NFL and NBA. This is a point which has been discussed before, and there are some amongst the content producers who are doing their best to make sure this is happening.

Second, is that as many people as possible should look to simply get data, use the data and just play with it.



I echo the tweets above; the best place to start is (for me anyway) where I started one July in 2013 - On Statsbomb. I feel like I was one of the first to follow the work that Colin, Ben & Ted were doing and it was simply excellent to watch it roll, and roll and roll into the hub it has become now. Even with TK at FCM/Brentford, James Yorke has done an excellent job in recruiting good talent who contribute regularly and with very good quality stuff - And it's still accessible & well explained.

Tom Worville has set up Fanalytics Blogs which auto-tweets selected blogs by people, which gives you the most up to date blogs out there, which is a great resource to keep up to date with readings and such.

But what if you want to get involved?



Ben Torvaney has written this post (which features my colleague Chris Love's work on BBC Text Commentary web scraping) on where to get data from when you don't have the opportunity or cash for Opta data here

The too-long didn't-read of it is, start with a simple copy and paste, clean it up a little and start playing. My personal holy grail, and a post I still refer people back to even today? Neil Charles' blog on doing football analysis in Tableau here - When this came out in February, it was the first time I downloaded and used Tableau. Today, 7 months later, it is the bread and butter of my job and I use it almost every day.



But if that ain't enough, and you just want a dataset to go and play with? Have a proper look at Ben's blog again - there are some really good links there and also (as the tweet above states) Paul Riley has a public expected goals Tableau dashboard and the data freely available to use, and Footy in the Clouds and Objective Footy and ChelseaStats are folks who have their data available to play with on their website.

In my eyes, there are those people who are doing the pioneering work within the space, the people who follow, read, critique and do their best to get involved and those who follow out of interest. For me, there's a real danger of those who are doing the cutting edge public stuff to run off into the distance while the rest of us are trying to gauge the ELOs from our ExpG's. Which brings me back, again to the crux of this article - that analytics should be made more accessible and bloggers should do their best to have some level of accessibility (though it's super hard not to immerse yourself in jargon sometimes) and that aspiring people who see what the key members are doing and like it? They should get involved.

Take your favourite team, ask a question and see if the data confirms it - then write about it. Then publish it. Even tag a few people in who you want to read it, and get the exposure you need. The rest will follow, and if you enjoy it, you'll inevitably want to get better and do more stuff.

With today's announcement about Analytics FC developments & the growing interest in the field, there's not been a better time to set up your Blogger or Wordpress account and get writing!

NB; there are some amazing people to follow on Twitter, and rather than listing them all and giving them the acknowledgement they deserve, I'm simply going to plug my Twitter list (I also recommend using Tweetdeck - so good)

https://twitter.com/Scribblr_42/lists/football-data-tweets

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FIXED Level of Detail Intricacies; a Case Study

This blog was originally posted on The Information Lab: https://www.theinformationlab.co.uk/2015/11/04/fixed-level-detail-intricacies-case-study/

Preamble
Level of detail calculations are super duper tricky - Having used Tableau for the last four months at an intensive pace and level, I find myself steering away from level of detail where I can. So when an instance occurs when I need to use it, I either find myself thinking it through with minute detail, or referring back to a session with had the Queen of LOD's, Bethany Lyons - My notes actually come in handy in this instance!
As some of you may be aware, the Data School have already recruited for the next cohort of Data Padawans that The Information Lab are looking to mould into awesome Data Consultants. This intensive process included (as you can read here) a simple Tableau creation process, and followed by each interviewee getting given a similar data set. The beauty of this? Not only is it a chance to experience the world of Tableau and really get to grips with how it works, but it is also an opportunity to ask questions, learn and develop your skills as Andy and the rest of the team are always happy to answer questions, critique and help the interviewees during the process. This is an amazing opportunity for feedback, especially (in my experience anyway), a large amount of applications and notes made during the process disappear into the netherworld, never to be seen or heard from again. The transparency is amazing.

The Exercise
Back to the purpose of this post - As a warm-up a few weeks ago as the Data School training was winding down, Andy Kriebel set us a challenge to answer a question one of the candidates had asked; how to work out the minimum and maximum life expectancy for;

• Each Local Authority
• Each Gender
• For every date range
• Where there are no nulls, the metric used is average, and the age category is 'at birth'

The reason for doing analysis like this could be to see whether or not there is a change in the movement of the distance between the highest and lowest 'years left to live' value. Which is actually a good idea, as if this gap widens in some areas in the same year as it gets  smaller in others, then perhaps one ward is more successful than others and their practices should be implemented.

So creating something like this (here we have the basic calculations of MIN and MAX in the viz) should work right?


No - This doesn't seem to work as the visualisation is returning the same value for minimum and maximum for each one of these marks, as it's the lowest level of granularity. The difference is obvious when you take things at the local authority level. But the question, if you remember is this; if you rank the ward by any measure then you can't compare the difference in gender, for instance or see the minimum or maximum for the life expectancy (years left to live) measure.

The Action
What we want for this one is to not allow Tableau to aggregate at the default level, but instead to determine at which level of detail Tableau should be running it's calculations.
So the 'level of detail' that needs to be aggregated up & fixed to is at the Local Authority and Gender level. So my first attempt used a Fixed level of detail.
Fixed aggregates at the specific level of detail of the expression, regardless of what is present in the view. With this in mind, my first attempt was this.


Max LtL as { FIXED [Local Authority], [Gender] : MAX([Years Left to Live]) } for the maximum value

Min LtL as { FIXED [Local Authority], [Gender] : MIN([Years Left to Live]) } for the minimum value

LtL Diff as [Max Ltl] - [Min Ltl]

And the is what the result I was given was.

This seems a remarkable high range, even at birth - It doesn't make sense for the minimum life expectancy for a male or female to be 70 years apart from the maximum level of detail given. For instance in the example above, we can see that for the years 1999-2003, a female in the Eastbrook ward of Barking & Dagenham, the minimum years left to live is 14.9 years; a difference of almost 70 years.

All the values for the Local Authority are now at the same level of detail, but the result definitely can't be right! (I hope!)

However, this doesn't give the correct answer because in order for the fixed level of detail to work, all dimensions which are being addressed need to be in play within the calculation - so instead, our LOD calculation would be;


Max LtL as { FIXED [Local Authority], [Gender], [Metric],[Age Category],[Date Range] : MAX([Years Left to Live]) } for the maximum value


Min LtL as { FIXED [Local Authority], [Gender], [Metric],[Age Category],[Date Range] : MIN([Years Left to Live]) } for the minimum value


LtL Diff stays as [Max Ltl] - [Min Ltl]

Giving us this

Much better. Now in the years 1999-2003, a female in the Eastbrook ward of Barking & Dagenham has a minimum life expectancy of 77.4 years, with a small difference of 5.1 years. This seems to be correct.

The Lesson
So, the question was how to work out the minimum and maximum life expectancy for;

• Each Local Authority
• Each Gender
• For every date range
• Where there are no nulls, the metric used is average, and the age category is 'at birth'

And in order to do this, all the dimensions (blue pills) in the view must be included in the Level of Detail calculation. As you can see, before the colon you have every pill which is in the view. In order for the calculation to work, every dimension which is in the view must be taken in the calculation. This makes sure that all of these are held as fixed, meaning that the calculation is left at this high level of detail.

After conversing with Chris Love about this post, he mentioned that the first attempt can also be remedied using context filters. This is because the FIXED level of detail calculation doesn't take filters into account unless they are in context. So adding Metric and Age Category to context also works in this instance.

The reason for sharing this was to show an example where understanding how the " { FIXED " function can be used, but also to highlight once more that within Tableau, there is more than one way to reach a solution.

Have a look at the workbook I've uploaded Tableau Public; click on the image below to have it pop up.

It's got the two sheets - My first attempt, and second, with the data attached for you to explore further and understand the exercise.


If I've made any errors in how I've communicated or explained this, please let me know so I can edit the post accordingly, and more importantly, carry on learning.

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"Are you seriously blaming the goalkeeper" - Tractors in the Forest

Yesterday was an excellent day on #ITFC Twitter.

Kicked off with a million 'See, Mick's doing what I said!' tweets, the introduction of Jonny Parr for Jonas Knudsen was further fuel to the 'I-told-you-so' crowd. For me, my only relief was Ainsley Maitland-Niles playing in a midfield, and I was merely satisfied with Bru alongside him - Either one of Coke or Douglas would have worked for me. All three are able to do the same job of the 'go-between' central midfielder. I like Pitman, so I would have included him from the start instead of Sears or Murphy, but both seemed to be impressive today.

On the subject of Murphy, I felt he had his role to play and did it extremely well.  Tracking back on the left hand side, playing others in and being the brick wall he has been up front. My argument to those who say he is lacking 'confidence' is that he may be asked to play differently than he was last year; shades of it were seen when Sears joined in the winter transfer window. The introduction of Sears meant Murphy's role was not to simply shoot and score, but to have a more expansive role as well. For me, his age and output was always going to regress to his norm - And perhaps MM (maybe not in those exact words) knows this, especially through his years of management.

I'm a public sceptic of Dean Gerken - I worry whenever he leaves his line. I also feel Bart may be a better goalkeeper but am not sold on the idea. I am certain however that I wholly trust a coaching team who are lead by the likes of Mick McCarthy and Terry Connor who have been doing this for a while. I think having a consistent back 5 has been the goal since McCarthy took over, but he has played around with it when necessary (see, the 5 at the back at the end of the 13/14 season). Though I could understand Gerken being taken out of the 'firing line', I am also a backer of putting faith in a goalkeeper who has good reflexes and is very vocal with his backline. He made some good saves yesterday, against, and I must stress this a team who has taken the most shots in the league this year (224) - 174 key passes and 8 assists make 182 chances created, which is far greater than Ipswich's 166 shots and 129 key passes with 9 assists.

Forest are shot monsters; they got 18 shots away to Ipswich's 9 and were arguably on top for much of the game until the Ipswich goal, which was a huge slice of luck from Jonny Parr. After that, Murphy and McGoldrick both had chances to double our lead, but were unable to finish. Had these gone in, the post-mortem on the Ipswich performance wouldn't exist. I'd argue that this was one of our better performances, and that the balance that Niles and Bru brought to the midfield allowed the front 3 to just go play.



This is the touchmap for the Ipswich players yesterday - Notice three things here - One, the importance of the left-hand channel. This has been a trend since Cresswell/Mings. Two, the distinction between midfield and attack. The 4-3-3 is almost visible within this image. And three, Kevin Bru. 90 touches, more than any other player on the pitch.

For the next game, I would replace Murphy with my personal favourite Pitman - Pitman's energy and defensive work-rate helps the midfield, and being a jack-of-all-trades having a good passing ability, aerial ability and shot frequency, I'd like to see him in the team. I feel the back 5 pick themselves, and Douglas is a like-for-like switch for Skuse. For those wondering why Douglas isn't the barnstorming midfielder (was he this at Brentford) that he was at Brentford - the Irishman is now 32, his technical abilities and leadership (the man is very vocal and loves to intelligently point to where players should be) are the skills he brings to the Ipswich midfield.

Do I think that things are going wrong? Not at all. Last year, as I've heard Mick say, were Ipswich better than the other 18 teams in the league? Not really. Were we extremely lucky to finish in the play-offs? Being 2nd was a mass over-achievement, but by that measure, yes that play-offs were par.

The big question for me, however, is this - Had we been somehow promoted, how hard would we have been slapped in the face by the top 8 Premier League sides? This team and squad is so far away from the Premier League. But if the management team are allowed time to build and develop the talent whilst being relatively competitive (I'm talking top 10), I feel that there could be something awesome on the cards in a year or two.

But there's no chance any fanbase, let alone the bored-tired-and-exhausted-of-the-Championship Ipswich fans wanting to wait that long for glory; But I think luck and opportunity are fuelled by timing - Would Berra have joined Jewell's Ipswich? Would Keane have overseen the explosion of Daryl Murphy we witness last year?

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3 months; Is there much going wrong at Ipswich Town?

This post has nothing to do with Bastian Schweinsteiger nor the Carling Cup game against Man Utd. Sorry.

It's not been the best of starts for Ipswich Town, as they look to improve on or replicate last season's play off achievement. However, after a sea of optimism in the summer, things aren't looking as optimistic as this summer felt for many of the Blue Army.

The Tractor Boys started the season by letting a 2 goal lead slip to Brentford in the last 10 minutes of the game, and not being able to close the game out has been the Achilles heel of many of the Ipswich games this season. Though Ipswich are sitting in the top 10 of the table, many will feel that the team could and should be doing better, with the performances not really giving reason for optimism.

I'll be doing a separate post on the striker problem for Ipswich, but firstly I'd like to talk about the midfield. The summer saw the departure of the likes of Ambrose, Anderson et al who had bolstered the squad, and the introduction of the exciting young talents of Ainsley Maitland-Niles and the electric Ryan Fraser. Whilst both have truly excited the Ipswich fans, it has been Fraser who has shone in the first few weeks of the season, whilst the youth and raw talent of Maitland-Niles has been shown (though, it can be argued that the relationship with Chambers and on occasion, Josh Emmanuel hasn't quite clicked yet)

A point I made last night was the relationships between the wide(r) midfielders and the full-backs. Last year, the left hand side was a nailed down Mings/Tabb relationship - which worked perfectly as it combined Mings' tenacity and guile getting forward with Tabb's work-rate and simple play.

For much of last year, Ipswich operated a flat 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3 - The license for Mings to roam forward and join the attack meant that Tabb, often deployed on the left of the midfield (which I didn't mind *because* of TM's attacking talent and marauding runs), was able to tuck in and support the midfield two in a 4-4-2.  This meant that Chambers, who isn't as adept going forward as Mings or even Jonny Parr, was reserved but also had the insurance that either his right-midfielder (often Anderson, or during the later stages of the year, Luke Varney) would cover him or have the energy and nous to track back. The style of play Parr, Anderson and Varney brought down that right was similar to the left - working hard up and down the pitch, covering Chambers when he got forward. This worked so well last year, but Mick seemed to wanted his proper wingers.

Now he has Fraser and Niles, I feel the relationships haven't quite clicked yet; for me, particularly down the right hand-side. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this is something that Ainsley Maitland-Niles does, which often leaves him exposed and allows teams to break down the left. Knudsen has fitted in well (ish) and is still getting up to speed positionally and physically, and has generally allowed Fraser in front of him to wreck a little havoc. On the right, I feel Niles drifts in often, exposing Chambers and occasionally leaving the skipper with the uncertainty whether he has the license to drive forward - Against Huddersfield, knowing Sears' runs and the way he plays allowed Chambers to get up and down (he also gained the coverage of both Douglas and Skuse when needed)



A random piece of blogging/visualisation I did over the summer saw that left-backs, in particular those who were left footed left-backs were more likely to overlap and cross the ball over. This could be due to a number of reasons, one of which being the new 'trend' to have inverted wingers (see, Ryan Fraser), or having a right footed left midfielder with a penchant of cutting in. This allows, I guess, more talented attacking midfielders to have a spot in a team - What isn't helped, however, is when a right-midfielder isn't able to effectively track his man when this situation arises. And I'm still not sold on the effectiveness of Larsen Toure, however much of a cult hero he is for throwing his shirt into the crowd and then asking for it back.

Secondly, central midfield. I love Cole Skuse - I really do, and last season was a joy for me personally as so many Ipswich fans became sold into understanding how pivotal the role he plays is. Protecting the back four, being a king of intercepting the ball, slotting in positionally when others were out of shape and generally playing the most obvious passes. This season? Not so much.

Is it the dynamic which has changed? Are the men in Blue being asked to play a different way, or are they not sure what the dynamic is with the four fantastic strikers and the two exciting wingers? Or is it simply a case of allowing time, and ensuring that a relationship comes into play between any two of Skuse, Douglas, Coke, Bishop, Bru and eventually Hyam? Time will tell, but for me there is something off - And I'm definitely disappointed with the impact that Jonathan Douglas has had. For various reasons, I've only been able to go to one game at Portman Road this year, and where Pitman, Fraser and McGoldrick impressed (as did young Yorwerth), Douglas left me wanting a little. Where was the leadership? The drive? Far too often was he spotted standing and pointing, rather than looking for positions and nurturing the midfield.

Last season's success was built around a spine, the foundations from which the house which McCarthy's men built last year's delightful run on was based on Berra, Skuse and Murphy. With all three struggling to find form, Ipswich's job of winning games has become that much harder.

I think a lot of last year's success was based around the right players who

• a) knew each other and each other's game and
• b) many slice of luck and hard work and
• c) a striker who had a remarkable (yet unsustainable) peak (which I still find bizarre was kept on for sentiment's sake when realistically, for a business decision and to take the club forward, cashing in was the best option).

The method to which Ipswich shoot, their passing and build up play has definitely changed since last season's overachievement and subsequent loss to (truth be told a better Norwich side).

So what needs to change? In an ideal world, Ipswich would have a full supplement of squad players, a tactical set up which makes use of each player's skill and a bench which allows versatility of formation, and injects energy and a fresh perspective. The reality is functional football which is rarely attractive, and arguably since January definitely hasn't been functional.

I believe that Mick is looking to develop a starting back five and instill the foundations which sent Ipswich on *that* remarkable run at the end of 2013. The likes of Bru and Bishop are missing, granted, but I feel that there are other avenues to explore - I'd like to see Niles as a part of a midfield three alongside Douglas and Skuse. Skuse found a good balance between running with the ball and laying off to a teammate, whilst Douglas settle into the game and the rhythm around the 55-60 minute mark (when a creative outlet in McGoldrick was on the pitch).

I think there is no need to panic yet - There are many games to go, and though Hull will be a tough fixture given their Premier League quality, I feel that 4 out of 6 points in the next week will be good - In my eyes.

This, by @GoalImpact (and awesome account and website) shows how open the Championship really is.



I've not posted much given that I've started a new day job, but I'm planning on publishing at least one blog a month - Someone hold me to this! The next blog or two I will post will probably contain more Tableau stats.

As ever, you can find me on Twitter - @Scribblr_42

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Squad Development, Signings & a new Season

NB: My glossary of terms can be found here. At the turn of the year, the Tractor Boys were in a field of glory, after a run of 11 games unbeaten meant they entered the new year in second place, with huge optimism flowing out of Suffolk. Daryl Murphy was in a rich vein of form, scoring left, right and centre, finishing with an impressive 0.71 Scoring Contribution (NPG+A) per 90 (0.577 NPG p90)  - The position of the team was a surprise for all, including many fans who were pleasantly surprised by the teams affluence, and a 32 year old Irishman in the form of his life.

Last season wasn't to be though, as the depth of the squad showed and financially better off teams such as Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich showed that quality does often shine through and Ipswich fell foul to a regression to the mean. However, this has not dampened any of the hopes of the Blues following who are certain that Mick McCarthy's men can be surprise promotion challengers once more.

"A play-off squad with an automatic promotion manager"

When Mick McCarthy took over from Paul Jewell, Ipswich were dangerously close to finally slipping into the third tier of English football - And the team just haven't looked back since. McCarthy's distinct, defence first functional style of play is sneered at by many, but McCarthy and his trusted assistant Terry Connor are seasoned professionals in navigating the often underestimated waters of the Championship - A league which Ipswich are entering a record 14th straight season in.

What does this season hold for Ipswich?



Transfer Business

Many of the fringe players and free agents signed by McCarthy were released at the start of the window, and perhaps most lamented by many fans was the release of Paul Anderson. I liked Anderson, his creative outputs were good, at 2.34 per 90 and 0.33 Assists per 90. This was linked to the amount of goals Ipswich scored from set-pieces (12 from corners, 7 from crossed free-kicks - The most indirect set-piece goals in the league last year).

The most notable departure was Tyrone Mings, departing for newly promoted Bournemouth for a sizeable £8m, with Ryan Fraser joining the East Anglian side on loan as well as Brett Pitman joining for 'no fee'. This was an incredible piece of business for all involved; Fraser will be able to kick on from his impressive 2.58 Key Pass + Assists per 90 whilst Brett Pitman featured as a potential  ready-made replacement were Dary l Murphy to leave. (My earlier post regarding this can be found here). Murphy signing a new deal was more of a talismanic move - The Irishman had his best season since scoring 10 goals and registering 11 assists for Sunderland in 2006-07. His form and aerial ability had the likes of Middlesbrough, Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff reportedly sniffing around - And Ipswich must have been tempted to cash in on an ageing striker. His role this season will be to continue his rich vein of life as a central striker, and develop the game of others around him - as he did with Sears for the latter stages of last season.

Not a lot is known about Jonas Knudsen, signed from Danish outfit Esbjerg but following a pre-season friendly where he made a second half debut against FC Utrecht, he has already endeared himself to fans as a cult hero, as he reportedly has a cannon as a left-boot to match his rocket of a long-throw. Given Ipswich's aerial ability - 48% of all aerials won, second in the league for total aerials contested (2383) - This addition will only add to the hustle Town's players will cause in the opposition area.

Add the loan addition of Ainsley Maitland-Niles from Arsenal, a promising young winger who has appeared on the bench last season for the Gunners as well as squad bolstering Giles Coke and Larsen Touré, with the potential for Jonathan Douglas signing later this week and Ipswich's squad looks to be built upon a solid base, allowing the attacking quartet of Murphy, McGoldrick, Sears and Pitman to feed off the direct style of play McCarthy has brought to Town.

Key Players

The spine of Berra, Skuse, McGoldrick and Murphy is seen as pivotal to build a team around. Berra is suspended for the start of the season, but being dominant in the air (4.49 Aerials Won per 90) and ranking second in possession turnovers (Unsuccessful Touches + Dispossessed per 90) - Berra plus one other of Smith or Chambers is widely seen as the central defensive pairing of choice.



Murphy's aerial dominance is huge with a win (42% success) off a huge 457 contested aerials; only Rudy Gestede (now of Aston Villa), Igor Vetekele & Atdhe Nuhiu contesting more aerials. David McGoldrick took had a shots per 90 of 3.96 and a conversion rate of 2.1% from within the penalty area - The lowest among strikers who played >1500 minutes. Given the amount of shots he took 96, a surprising 56 came from outside the box - the second highest amongst strikers in the League with only Ross McCormack shooting more frequently from long-range.

An interesting trend I saw within the Ipswich team last season was the obvious difference between shot takes and chance creators (Key Pass + Assists per 90) is very much defined by position. For other teams, this split isn't as distinct with a few midfielders in the spectrum of creating & shooting - Perhaps an area which the squad needs to strengthen to mount a true promotion challenge - The blank space in between the shooters and creators, the upper right quadrant is where Ipswich can/should look to push on. It's where I think the signing of Jonathan Douglas will help develop this further, as well as bringing much needed nous and experience to the midfield.



I was interested in this, so I've included a the full map with all teams (filtered for players with >500 mins played) just to see trends. I've posted the full picture below, but I'll add a link to the Tableau Public dashboard later.



For notable other Ipswich players, Teddy Bishop is a player who a lot is being made of. When introduced in during October, he was much needed as a player who would fearlessly pick the ball up and look forward. Much of the fanbase enjoyed this, as the common (mis)conception of Skuse passing sideways and backward were continually being bandied about. Of course, as the season progressed the value that Skuse brought as a calm presence recycling and reusing the ball was essential to the run that Ipswich embarked on in the winter of 2014.

My lukewarm tips are Bishop and Pitman to really impress. I can see Pitman displacing Murphy around the middle of the year, and along with the other two strikers, the competition for starting XI spots will be more fiercely contested than ever. Bishop will have a year of experience in this league under his belt, and may be trusted to complete some full 90s this year (according to TransferMarkt, Bishop did not finish a game - Started 23 and was subbed in all of the appearances). Pitman is one player who I saw was a good  looking player, but never thought he would be available for transfer. As a player, I'd position him in the space between Murphy and McGoldrick, which is an awesome idea.

Aspirations

The notion amongst fans is that par for the season will be play-offs. With a bit of squad cohesion and development, there is an agreement that automatic promotion is possible, but the financial muscle and strength in squad depth of other teams might weigh against Ipswich. The Championship as a league which is full of talented players. I won't attempt to predict McCarthy's 'preferred eleven' as I feel as though each team will be set up differently, for a draw away and a more pragmatic attacking feel to their home performances.

Expect Ipswich to continue their unflattering style of functional football, littered with set-piece profligacy and direct channels of play. The energy and dynamism across all the positions will highlight the hardworking ethos which has been drilled into a team who plays under Mick McCarthy.

UPDATE: Check out the published workbook.

 

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Clickbaiting, the Price of Money & a Bit of Context

I wrote a post a month or so ago about how I felt transfer windows had lost their attraction.

This might be due to getting older, gaining a greater understanding of intricate details and being skeptical of British media and/or the Sky Sports agenda. But for me, the obscene amounts of money attributed to the purchase the rights to field a player of a certain team as well as the cyclical discussions and narratives surrounding fees have just become irritating.

I find it bewildering that in a world where sources of stories can be easily cross checked and verified, as well as the amount of statistics that are publicly available, that commenters, fans and even professionals who are closer to the industry than most suddenly find a focal point and stick to it. I mean, I can answer my own question really - It sells papers, it baits tweeters and it garners revenue to ad-based websites and phone-ins.



The latest couple to join the bandwagon of media targets (joining the likes of Fernando Torres, Jose Mourinho and Mario Balotelli) are firstly the 'overrated' attitude toward a certain Raheem Sterling and the 'overpriced' nature of Christian Benteke. One is greedy, the other is injury-prone - Simple. Why pay an obscene amount of money for a 20 year old who was inconsistent last season? Why pay an obscene amount of money for an injury prone striker who doesn't fit a perceived philosophy?



A caveat or tangent here - Whenever a player gets linked away to a rival or a different club, I always tend to play a devils advocate in terms of offering the player's point of view; that they might want career progression, they might want to develop their game with a different environment or they might be being head-hunted by another.

Let's put this in actual career terms.

You work for Woolworths. You've got a good job, you're important to the store, you get on with the regular customers and the staff all appreciate your presence. You often are on hand to help and save them whenever they're in a pickle, using diplomatic relations to put out any potential fires which would cause abrasion in the staff room. Now, Waitrose have heard of you, and they're a fan of your work - They could use a person like you on their staff who are getting older by the day and aren't as modern or talented as you are. They offer you a chance to work for a bigger company, with a better bonus structure, and the option to be a part of a company who are seen as a reseller of top quality goods, as opposed to your cult based team.

These questions circulate until someone just gives up arguing and it's the accepted train of thought. But who wants to bother with the context, right? Who wants to bother with a train of thought where an individual who works at a firm and is offered the chance to relocate to a location which isn't too far away, with the prospect of a lot more money and potential for more bonuses? But the company gave you your first shot at a full-time job! They sent you to the biggest conferences, you presented and people enjoyed your work - But then two years later, you feel like you haven't progressed.. So when another company comes in with an unmatchable financial package, do you take it? Do you stay loyal because the company you work for has the 'best and most loyal' consumers in the world? Or do you look to move forward?



This analogy will annoy of a HUGE number of Liverpool fans who see this as comparing Woolworths to Waitrose as Liverpool to Man City - I mean it as any good level club competing against any club who has performed comparatively better in the years that have passed. Oh, and the fact that Woolies went under. That's all by the by - I hope the point comes across without you lot getting to hung up on the analogy; that if you're giving the opportunity to either change to a better job, or work to get a better job - the easy way out is to choose the former. That's it.

This is probably a terrible way to explain the Raheem Sterling situation, but it's a point of view worth considering. I'll probably enjoy him being on the end of a particularly strong (but within the laws of the game) challenge from Martin Skrtel or Mamadou Sakho, but for the moment I wish him the best of luck at his new club.


(Photo by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images)

So the middle of this story is the way that transfers are currently evaluated - Value for money. Using the Bleacher Report's recent article (good source, right? I couldn't find another solid transfer source - I think this is where I should mention Paul Tomkins' Transfer Price Index table, which is probably a lot more accurate than my dataset - Find it here.)


via. Tomkin Times

What is value for money? Strikers are great, because they're dissected time and time again if they go periods without shaking the onion bag  - Key people here are a Andriy Shevchenko and Fernando Torres. Two big money (alleged) Abramovich signings who 'flopped'. I don't get the stigma attached to huge amounts of money. Okay, I do - it's the whole returns to investment point, that the potential value that one party loses and one party gains (here parties being football clubs than sub-par political parties) - How do you measure that? This is increasingly attached to the fee charged for the transfer of rights which includes stuff like signing on fees and bonuses and whatnot. Examples I'd use are Jordan Henderson, Marouane Fellaini and Rio Ferdinand. The reason why Rio' s astronomical fee was never overly highlighted perhaps is linked to him being so young, his huge potential, and a previous big money move to Leeds, who he went on to captain.

Transfer fees are a free market system - It's all it is; a collection of buyers and sellers where there is a price which the former are willing to pay and the latter are willing to accept. Simple, straightforward supply and demand. The tricky part is predictions. What if this was a one off? What if Torres never gets back to his scintillating best? What if Ross McCormack doesn't live up to his obscene transfer fee? What if Andy Carroll doesn't develop into a Drogba-like player? Team effects play a huge part of a players performance, as do attitude and the environment/mentality that they have when appearing for a club; so performances should be taken with a pinch of salt - Did Benteke really have an awful first half of the season, did Timmy Sherwood actually inspire confidence in him? Or was it merely a managerial change which lead to an approach and mindset which suited Benteke's end product. (I'll throw in my 2 cents here; he is not a target man like Andy Carroll - Think more Heskey, but with sublime finishing skills.)

This is where sports analytics is trying to predict and better understand this problem to make smarter decisions - It's not simply about the fee, or the player - It's a conglomeration of things. Will the player settle in the country? Is the playing style suited to him? Does he feel loved by the fans and teammates? Is there too much media pressure and hype surrounding him? What about his temperament? Will he believe his own hype and fall off the wagon?

These are all key questions that analysts are now, or should be asking. Football is ultimately played by human beings like the rest of us, as Paul Power states in his two excellent videos (here and here), football is a dynamic system - The stuff Prozone is trying to achieve is incredible and I look forward to seeing the rest of the work. There is so much at play in a football match, that one statistic (obviously) cannot explain the entire situation. I've always maintained my love of stats in sports is the context is provides - the wider understanding that our cognitive biases look to ignore or cloud.

Two further examples; when Nikica Jelavic signed for Everton from Rangers, and started scoring, or Papiss Demba Cisse for Newcastle, or Michu for Swansea - They were immediately highlighted as 'bargains that big clubs missed'. Were they? How have each done at their clubs respectively, bar those one or two 'good' seasons? Has Aguero not been value for money? Were van Persie's goals not a key reason why United won Sir Alex Ferguson his final league title? Suarez, Essien, Sanchez; all worth the huge outlay for the returns to investment. So, with this, team effects and the market mechanisms taken into account - perhaps the £49m paid for Raheem Sterling or the £32.5m paid for Christian Benteke will prove to be good business for all parties. Or perhaps City will have purchased another Jo or Jovetic and Liverpool have another Stewart Downing or Andrew Carroll.



I've included a screenshot of a Tableau Public dashboard on the topic of Transfer Fees, but also a link here if the picture link doesn't work. Have a mess around with it.. It's not as accurate or comprehensive as I would like, but I think it provides some good context into transfers. Second caveat here - IT IS IN EUROS. The site I got this data off only had the figures in €m so I'm afraid that will have to do.

Let me know your thoughts on the viz, the article - anything. I'm always happy to discuss further!

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